With current and future trade agreements in question, and business and development impact paramount, is the world heading towards a new wave of protectionism?

In this session, David Cote of American multinational Honeywell kicks off the discussion with a defence of free trade.

“Free trade between countries improves everything”, he says. However, he also mentions that current trading blocs, such as NAFTA, need to be updated to bring them into line with 21st century practices.

David Abney of UPS shares a similar view towards free trade and globalisation. He believes that protectionism on its own isn't enough to overturn the current regime. “Now isn’t the time to worry about it”, he tells the panel.

Roberto Azevêdo of the World Trade Organisation believes that the agenda for free trade should continue to be pushed, with global free trade existing as an end goal. The Trade Facilitation Agreement, he says, was drawn up in 2013, and is only four signatures away from being ratified.

Brexit

European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström says that setting up a new trade deal between the EU and UK won’t be easy. “Free trade negotiations aren’t just about tariffs”, she warns. “They’re very complex”.

US-China relations

The panel maintain that a trade war between the US and China is unlikely, because it doesn’t benefit either nation in any way. “I don’t believe there’s going to be a trade war because there’s so much at stake”, says David Abney.

Min Zhu of the National Institute of Financial Research points out that a trade war between the US and China would slash their GDP growth rates - by one third in China and by half in America, respectively.

TPP

Abney believes that one of the problems endemic within the protectionism debate is that many people aren’t aware enough of the benefits of free trade. “We haven’t done a good job to communicate the benefits of globalization”, he says.

There are also concerns raised regarding America’s plans to walk away from the TPP trade deal. It groups together a number of emerging economies, and Cote believes that closer co-operation would be a wise decision. Emerging markets are important, as he points out - within twenty years, they’ll account for half of the world’s GDP.