How corruption is the leading indicator for political unrest

Corruption is a leading indicator for political instability and 64 countries where fraud and bribery are widespread risk falling into violent upheaval, a global think tank said in a new report.

While anti-corruption researchers long have argued the corrosive power of corruption, its political impact has never before been measured globally.

By examining the linkage between corruption measures and peaceful societies, the research by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) based in Sydney finds strong statistical evidence that high and rising levels of corruption can undermine security, and that only small increases can cause civil unrest.

“The most striking aspect of this relationship is that there is a tipping point,” said Aubrey Fox, U.S. executive director for the Australia-based group.

“This is enormously important for countries, because if you can, through incremental efforts, knock corruption below that tipping point and control it, you can avert the most difficult consequences,” he said in a telephone interview.

The findings come as world leaders consider including targets for battling corruption as part of the new United Nations’ development goals for adoption in September.

The IEP examined trends in peace and corruption over the past 15 years by looking at Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index (CPI), the World Bank‘s Control of Corruption measure, and its own Global Peace Index.

It found that when a country’s CPI score is under 40 out of a possible 100 that would denote minimal corruption, it has reached a threshold for collapse of government institutions and a rise in internal violence, IEP said.

From this tipping point, small increases in corruption can trigger large declines in peace, as measured by its Global Peace Index. High levels of corruption in the police and judiciary are critical factors for undermining social cohesion, it said.

Over the last seven years, IEP said the indices show the world has become slightly less peaceful and that corruption has increased, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa.

Countries at the tipping point include Greece, where political corruption has led to a debt crisis and social unrest; Liberia, which was recovering from civil war when the Ebola epidemic hit last year; and Iran, it said.

However, gains in building a peaceful society do not show any statistical linkage to lower levels of corruption, indicating how persistent and challenging is the job of tackling fraud, bribery and abuse of power, IEP said.

This article is published in collaboration with Thomson Reuters Foundation. Publication does not imply endorsement of views by the World Economic Forum.

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Author: Stella Dawson is a Chief Correspondent of Governance and Anti-Corruption at Thomson Reuters Foundation.

Image: A young Iraqi girl holds out her money as she queues for the early morning bread at the bread factory in Baghdad. REUTERS/Kieran Doherty.