Economic Growth

There's never any good news about inequality, right?

A view of the Turano slum in Rio de Janeiro March 11, 2014. Rio de Janeiro is one of the host cities for the 2014 soccer World Cup in Brazil.

For most countries where data is available, the incomes of the poorest 40% are growing faster than the average. Image: REUTERS/Sergio Moraes

Nobuo Yoshida
Senior Economist, World Bank
Juan Feng
Economist, The World Bank

Sustainable Development Goal target 10.1 aims to progressively achieve, by 2030, sustained income growth among the poorest 40 percent of the population at a rate higher than the national average in every country. This echoes the World Bank’s goal of promoting shared prosperity, although the World Bank does not set a specific target for each country but aims to foster income growth among the poorest 40 percent in every country.

Annualized growth of per capita real mean consumption or income, 2007-12
Image: World Bank

In 56 of the 94 countries with data for 2007 to 2012, the per capita income of the poorest 40 percent is growing faster than the national average (countries above the diagonal line in the chart above). Of those 56, nine still experienced negative growth, including high-income countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States, and middle-income countries such as Guatemala and the Kyrgyz Republic. Thus, higher growth among the poorest 40 percent does not necessarily lead to prosperity.

Another group of countries experienced relatively strong growth (above 3 percent) over the same period for both the poorest 40 percent and the total population, but in some cases the growth rate for the bottom 40 percent was lower than the national average (for example China and Vietnam). In these cases the SDG target would not have been met, even though people were, on average, better off.

Among countries with data, a larger proportion of low- and middle-income countries met the target than high-income countries. Specifically, in around two-thirds of low- and middle-income countries the income of the poorest 40 percent grew faster than the national average, compared with half of high-income countries.

The incomes of the poorest 40% grew faster than the average in around two thirds of low and middle income countries with data
Image: World Bank

The monitoring of shared prosperity is a challenge because not all countries have household survey data in the specified period and, even if they exist, these surveys have to be reasonably comparable to each other in terms of the survey design and the construction of welfare. To expand the most recent database for monitoring shared prosperity, for example, as long as the survey dates are within +/- two years of 2007 and 2012, they are accepted, but currently only 94 countries have shared prosperity estimates for the period circa 2007 to 2012. More than half of the countries in the world do not currently have sufficient data to generate shared prosperity estimates.

Don't miss any update on this topic

Create a free account and access your personalized content collection with our latest publications and analyses.

Sign up for free

License and Republishing

World Economic Forum articles may be republished in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Public License, and in accordance with our Terms of Use.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.

Stay up to date:

Economic Progress

Share:
The Big Picture
Explore and monitor how Economic Progress is affecting economies, industries and global issues
A hand holding a looking glass by a lake
Crowdsource Innovation
Get involved with our crowdsourced digital platform to deliver impact at scale
World Economic Forum logo
Global Agenda

The Agenda Weekly

A weekly update of the most important issues driving the global agenda

Subscribe today

You can unsubscribe at any time using the link in our emails. For more details, review our privacy policy.

Why AI is Southeast Asia's new engine for profitable growth

Sapna Chadha

November 21, 2024

5 ways to go green: How countries can prioritize both equity and climate action

About us

Engage with us

  • Sign in
  • Partner with us
  • Become a member
  • Sign up for our press releases
  • Subscribe to our newsletters
  • Contact us

Quick links

Language editions

Privacy Policy & Terms of Service

Sitemap

© 2024 World Economic Forum