Forward Agenda - July 2018

Grüezi mitenand! Welcome to the World Economic Forum’s monthly update - the Forward Agenda. Building on the success of the Agenda Weekly, each month my team will pull together the most relevant and insightful points on the global agenda and publish here.

_____________________________

Growth at risk: A robust global economy, with some measures predicting GDP up over 4% in the second quarter, is at risk. Increasing protectionism, higher oil prices, rising interest rates, a high and rising US dollar, European fragmentation, and weak emerging economies threatened by a commodities slowdown are looming.

_______________________________

More trade troubles: President Trump is set to impose tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese imports, in an escalating trade dispute that will put the European leaders in the spotlight this month. At a Sino-European summit in Beijing on July 16-17, China is reportedly hoping that the EU will join it in condemning US actions. The World Trade Organization, also under pressure from President Trump, could be in for a bumpy ride.

______________________________

A challenged alliance: NATO leaders will come together in the face of mounting challenges, from the east and from the west. The alliance is working out how to respond to new types of warfare in which guns, bullets and planes serve only as symbols of old power against weapons such as cyber and disinformation. US President Trump and Russian President Putin will meet in Helsinki on July 16 as a counterpoint, as NATO members respond to President Trump’s call for European members to shoulder a greater share of the costs of the alliance.

_____________________________________

Can the center hold? Rising tensions around the definition of “rule of law” are adding to a maelstrom of challenges surrounding the European Union. The EU will decide in July whether to withdrawing budgetary support and voting rights from Poland and Hungary under Article 7, a provision that allows for sanction of EU member countries that infringe human rights. Elsewhere on the troubled continent: Brexit negotiations are increasingly time-bound and fractious, with costs to the UK mounting; refugees are the flashpoint issue dominating coalition relationships from Germany to Italy; and the burgeoning trade war with the US undermining otherwise respectable growth across the continents.

______________________________________

AI with nationalist characteristics: Artificial intelligence is fast becoming a critical geopolitical resource, with its commercial, military and scientific potential providing the basis for a new kind of arms race. Analysts urge governments to understand their country’s role in the AI economy and foster local talent and expertise, while at the same time ensuring that not all AI investment goes towards fattening corporate margins at the expense of jobs, communities and people.

_____________________________________

Transitional Payments: Experiments in Universal Basic Income as a solution for the technological job displacement are emerging around the world, with Ontario in Canada the latest. A pioneering Finnish programme ended earlier in the year, but the concept is being picked up by Silicon Valley tech pioneers who are sponsoring trials. One candidate for the US Presidency in 2020 is running with UBI as his sole issue.

_____________________________________

Digital addiction: As the World Health Organization declares Gaming Disorder a disease, and Apple introduces new operating system tools to help addicted iPhone users, technology marketers are dealing with the consequences of success.

______________________________________

Funny money: Revelations of Bitcoin manipulation, fitting into a larger pattern of financial bubbles, hasn’t stopped one of Silicon Valley’s most storied venture houses raising $300 million for crypto (including investing directly in the currencies) and using the opportunity to appoint its first female general partner to manage it.