Opportunities for peace in Afghanistan and the challenges ahead

This article is part of the World Economic Forum's Geostrategy platform

A gathering of more than sixty Afghans in Qatar last week provided a rare opportunity for frank discussion on the open questions facing a society still gripped in a decades-long conflict. A group of Kabul-based political, civil society, and government-endorsed representatives sat across from more than a dozen Taliban political officers, in a wrenching exchange of grievances, hopes, and fears about a slew of long-standing and contentious issues.

U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad called the meeting “an important step” and “an essential element of the four-part peace framework,” which aims to produce counterterrorism assurances from the Taliban, the withdrawal of foreign troops, intra-Afghan negotiations, and eventually an agreement on a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire.

The intra-Afghan talks hosted in Qatar, with assistance from the German government, follow two forums in Moscow since last year where Afghan government officials were not present. The Qatar meeting was held as talks between the United States and the Taliban are accelerating and have opened the possibility of more discussions leading to formal negotiations, an important development given impending elections in both Afghanistan and the United States.

The frank conversations between the Afghan representatives also laid bare the country’s decades-long wounds and contrasting positions on a host of policies and values. To attain a viable and inclusive political settlement and a responsible end to conflict, these differences will need further hashing out as part of a nascent political roadmap, which achieves consensus within Afghanistan and among key international stakeholders. The steps towards this goal will need to be carefully timed and sequenced to ensure success.

Issues and challenges

Participants in Qatar reached tacit understanding on some issues, expressed disagreements over others, and drew red lines on some key components of an emerging political framework that will require both intra-Afghan and multilateral dialogues, perhaps including expert international mediation.

The delegates, who had agreed to take part in a personal capacity as part of pre-approved criteria, saw eye to eye on the need to end the war, seek a political resolution to the conflict, and reduce the level of violence, especially the targeting of civilians and nonmilitary installations. The Taliban, however, refused to consider a temporary or permanent ceasefire. While the Taliban view a ceasefire as a future goal for U.S.-Taliban-Afghan government talks, many in Kabul consider it as a confidence-building measure that needs to be adopted whenever possible.

Furthermore, the Taliban rhetorically supported a set of principles on social and political inclusion, the Islamic nature of governance, and women and minority rights, but did not venture into specifics nor adhere to international legal obligations at this stage. A credible political settlement will need many of these key concerns clearly resolved prior to final agreement.

Many of the other important unresolved issues were raised by various participants but were avoided for the time being:

Opening the knots and tying in the next steps

Now that many of the critical issues are on the table and almost all relevant sides—domestic as well as external—are engaged in one form or another, the focus will need to shift to securing agreements on each of the four steps in the peace framework. Khalilzad alluded that a final agreement could be put to a binding decision-making conference to secure a broad-based Afghan commitment and international endorsement.

While in Kabul last month, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the United States wants a peace deal by early September, before the Afghan presidential election planned for the end of that month.

Many questions are outstanding, among them: Are the Taliban ready to make the transition to mainstream politics? Can a U.S.-Taliban peace deal be finalized and what are the consequences if it is treated separate from the other political settlement elements?

What can be accomplished within the existing timeframes given all the issues that still need to be addressed? If not achievable or partially accomplished, what are alternative approaches regarding elections, an Afghan political roadmap, and conflict de-escalation?

Given the time constraints and political pressures in several capitals, a larger window of opportunity has opened up after the Qatar gathering, but future steps will require more clarity, accelerated diplomatic efforts to bring all stakeholders onboard, focused intra-Afghan consultations, expert mediation, consensus and trust-building measures, all-around flexibility, political acumen, and responsible strategizing.

There is an historic opportunity to move in the direction of a durable peace and a credible political settlement, but all sides must move quickly, responsibly, and decisively.

An Afghan Opening: Opportunities, Challenges, and Pitfalls, Omar Samad, the Atlantic Council