'The second wave is in our hands'- WHO COVID-19 briefing

Governments easing lockdown restrictions are facing a new challenge: How to prevent a rebound in transmission. Given the many unknowns surrounding COVID-19, a vigilant, step-wise approach will be key in the months ahead, World Health Organization (WHO) officials said at a briefing in Geneva Monday.

COVID-19 is a new coronavirus and its behavior is still not yet truly known, officials reiterated.

Lockdowns help suppress the spread of the disease by preventing its ability to find new victims, said Michael J. Ryan, Chief Executive Director of the WHO Health Emergencies Programme. “In doing that, you're putting that pressure on the virus's capacity to survive.”

He added: “I think it's very logical that if you lift that pressure too quickly, the virus can jump back.”

That rebound could happen at any time if measures aren't taken to prevent it. “We don't know what's going to happen in two, three, four or five months when we may see a reemergence of the disease.”

Given the unknowns, predicting the best exit strategy can be difficult, said officials. Many experts agree that mass gatherings should still be avoided, explained Ryan. But other questions concerning when certain workers can return to their jobs and what parts of the economy should reopen first are more difficult to answer. “We don't know for sure which are the measures that will result in a successful exit strategy.”

Localities must look closely at their populations, considering how to protect their most vulnerable, and make decisions based on their specific context, said Ryan.

Relaxed restrictions must still be complemented by hygiene measures, physical distancing and community participation. On the public health side, surveillance, case finding, contact tracing and quarantining will continue to be essential.

“The second wave is in our hands,” said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General.

Even as communities put safeguards in place to strengthen their health systems and act with caution, “nothing is certain", said Ryan, “that's why we're watching very closely each and every country to see what lessons are being learned and we will ensure that those lessons are shared between countries".

Early results from seroepidemiology data have begun to show the extent of the infection in people who may have been missed by surveillance measures, said Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO Technical Lead. This tool is helping experts detect antibody levels in those individuals, she said.

The results currently available suggest that there are many more people the disease can infect, said Van Kerkhove, making it all the more important that communities remain vigilant to identify cases and stamp them out quickly.

“It's important that we understand at this point in time, four months into a global pandemic, a large proportion of the population still remains susceptible," said Van Kerkhove.