How did one European country free itself from Russian gas?

It seems clear now that buying Russian oil and gas means funding an attempt to dismantle a sovereign country, and indirectly enabling carnage.

Europe in particular has struggled with its dependence on fossil fuels from the “aggressor nation” waging war in Ukraine. Yet, one European state recently managed to liberate itself from Russian gas. How?

In 2014, several days after a Russian spy plane reportedly committed the first serious violation of NATO airspace since the fall of the Berlin Wall, and seven months after Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, officials gathered at a Lithuanian port for the unveiling of a new liquefied natural gas terminal.

Nobody would be able to dictate the price of gas to Lithuania anymore, the country’s president said then, “or buy our political will.”

She was right. As of earlier this month, Lithuania no longer has to import Russian gas for domestic consumption – and it’s been cited as an example for other EU member states to follow.

Lithuania’s gas independence is being celebrated, though it may point to an uncertain new economic era.

After the Cold War, a prevailing logic behind expanding economic ties was simple: the risk of cratering its own economy would serve as a check on Russia’s behavior. Russia has now obliterated that logic.

The current scramble to sever energy links is monumental. According to one measure, the EU has already paid more than €39 billion for Russian fossil fuels including gas since the start of the invasion in February.

Germany’s situation in particular has drawn scrutiny. It says it can’t wean itself from Russian gas “at least” until 2024, due to a close energy relationship solidified in the 1990s and underpinned by a pair of pipelines.

A country that had literally been cut into two parts by the Cold War opted to pursue an economic tie-up meant to help maintain peace and stability. But Lithuania had something else in mind, due to its own difficult history.

Lithuania itself is evidence that hubs of economic influence can shift dramatically over time.

At one point in the 15^th century, the Grand Duchy of Lithuania covered an area larger than modern France and Germany combined. A Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth followed, which was divided up by 1795 and Lithuania fell under the control of the Russian Empire.

In 1940 the country was annexed by the Soviet Union, and it didn’t fully emerge again until 1991. These historical details are a key part of any story about Lithuania’s drive to forego Russian energy.

For Germany, doing the same thing is not so simple. Experts think it would lose about €220 billion in economic output by shutting off Russian gas now, and fall into a deep recession.

An abrupt shift away from importing Russian energy also promises to feed further discussion about the global economy becoming far less global.

Pundits have been pondering the potential for de-globalization at least since the 2008 financial crisis. COVID-19 and related supply chain glitches brought another round of speculation. Russia’s military onslaught has spurred more meditation on the theme.

Some argue the global economy was a lot less interconnected prior to the war in Ukraine than many people assume.

Anyone who attempted something as simple as buying a bicycle during the thick of the pandemic, or who has looked into the origins of the many parts necessary to assemble a typical iPhone, may have trouble believing that.

Much more will likely be written soon about where the global economy goes from here, now that it seems Russia will be further isolated – or at least realigned.

One thing seems certain: if more countries start limiting their commercial interaction with others to punish actual transgressions, or to protect against those presumed inevitable based on the historical record, the global economy will start to look very different indeed.

For more context, here are links to further reading from the World Economic Forum's Strategic Intelligence platform:

On the Strategic Intelligence platform, you can find feeds of expert analysis related to Energy, International Security and hundreds of additional topics. You’ll need to register to view.