What can we expect from the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2022 today as previously released reports had already suggested. The prediction marks the seventh consecutive year an above-average season has been forecast. NOAA predicts six to ten hurricanes to occur in 2022, out of which at least half would be major hurricanes.

While the 2021 seasons included many tropical storms but fewer hurricanes, 2020 was an extremely busy year for hurricanes. A total of 14 formed over the Atlantic basin - the most since 2005, the year of Hurricane Katrina. Six of those were major hurricanes, including Hurricane Laura, Hurricane Eta and Hurricane Iota. In 2021, four out of seven hurricanes in the Atlantic basin were of category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson scale, further exemplifying the trend of hurricanes growing more severe over the years.

While in the 1970s and 1980s, the number of major hurricanes stood at an average of around 1.6 per year, this has increased to an average of 3.1-3.8 per year in the 2000s and 2010s. Climate change has been identified as a reason why stronger hurricanes occur.

More evidence that hurricane seasons are changing can be deferred from the timing of named storms. 2021's first storm - Ana - was named on May 22 after forming near the Bahamas. This made 2021 the seventh consecutive year a named storm formed before the start of the official season on June 1. No storm has been named in 2022 so far but a first Tropical Weather Outlook was issued ahead of schedule by the National Hurricane Center on Sunday, albeit giving the weather disturbance over the Northern Gulf of Mexico only a 10 percent change of turning into a tropical storm.

2005, when Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans, was the worst hurricane seasons since 1851, records from the National Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory at NOAA show. Hurricane Katrina was just one of seven major hurricanes observed in the Atlantic basin that year. 2005 was the year with most hurricanes in the Atlantic (15), followed by 2020 (14), 2010 (12, including Hurricane Sandy) and 1969 (also 12).