This is the link between climate change and conflict - and what can be done about it

“A problem well put is half solved,” according to philosopher and educator John Dewey.

The latest Ecological Threat Report (ETR) from independent non-profit think tank the Institute of Economics & Peace (IEP) seeks to present two particularly large and complex problems – identifying countries most at risk of catastrophic outcomes as a result of ecological threats, and predicting which ones are most likely to suffer from conflict and instability in future.

The ETR concludes that “without concerted action, current levels of ecological degradation will substantially worsen, thereby intensifying a range of social challenges, including malnutrition, forced migration and illness. Current conflicts will escalate and multiply as a result, creating further global insecurity”.

The 2022, ETR policy recommendations revolve around first being able to define the multiple problems, then building a framework to solve them holistically. Local communities and international agencies will need to work together, building innovative programmes to safeguard against increasing ecological disasters.

These are the problems we face, and the proposed solutions, according to the latest ETR report.

Highly resilient countries can manage their people’s needs and their economic resources better, and are less likely to suffer from adverse impacts if and when ecological events do happen. In other words, the more prepared a country is, the less the impact of conflict, ecological threats or climate change.

The ETR used its research to identify 27 hotspots — home to 768 million people — that have a combination of low societal resilience and high risk of ecological threats. Of those 27, an alarming eight countries recorded catastrophic scores in all four categories: Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Republic of the Congo, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda and Yemen, home to around 146 million people.

The report focuses on four different threats that relate to increasing conflict, classified from low up to catastrophic: Food security, Disasters from Natural Events, Population and Water stress.

Regionally, food security has been getting worse since 2019 — amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic — after a period of increasing food security since 2012. The countries that saw the highest deterioration were Colombia, Syria, Ethiopia and Mozambique.

Water stress can hurt economic development and food production, which can in turn negatively impact populations’ health and well-being, as well as create conditions for social tensions and conflict and, ultimately, displacement.

Much of the world’s expected population increases are in countries with low peace rankings. The 40 least peaceful nations will be home to an additional 1.3 billion people by 2050. With resources becoming more scarce, the chances of conflict increases with population growth, the report says.

Natural disasters can lead to the loss of life, and the destruction of infrastructure, which can reduce future development potential. This is especially true for underdeveloped regions. The number of natural disasters have been on the rise since 2018.

The relationship between ecology, climate, conflict and migration is complex, but the IEP report says there is growing recognition of a link between them.

With this in mind, the IEP held seminars in 2021 with 60 leading experts from governments, think tanks, military institutions and development organizations to explore solutions to address the increase in ecological threats.

“In most cases governments, multilaterals and other institutions engaged in societal development initiatives do not address their initiatives systemically. This can create unforeseen consequences and lead to only partially successful outcomes, since there is not a wider understanding of the dynamics of that society,” the report concludes.

To achieve better long-term outcomes, there needs to be first a common understanding on what the current system is, how it works, and what the change needs to be. The IEP released a framework called HALO to help “build a more holistic systems picture of societal issues”.

HALO helps to analyze societal systems and design “resilience-building” programmes.

These problems may be connected and complex, but HALO and other initiatives are striking out on a path towards their solutions.