The new millennium bug: everything you need to know about Y2Q

The world witnessed one of the large-scale global efforts to address the issue of Y2K (also known as the millennium bug) during the final decade of the last century. It is estimated that nearly $308 billion was spent worldwide dealing with the Y2K problem, with more than $130 billion spent in the US alone. But, thanks to international coordination and efforts, the Y2K problem was well handled.

Fast forward two decades and we have the similar-sounding “Y2Q” problem – expected to affect most information and communication systems. The Y2Q problem relates to the algorithms that currently secure systems against cyberattacks. These algorithms are based on complex mathematical problems that are practically intractable for traditional computers, but large and sufficiently capable quantum computers, which make use of quantum mechanics, have the potential to solve them in hours or even minutes.

If malicious actors have access to such quantum computing power, they could break the security of government and enterprise systems, disturb or even damage public services and utility infrastructure, disrupt financial transactions and compromise personal data. This is the large-scale threat known as Y2Q.

Industry experts, government agencies and standards organizations supported by governments and private organizations worldwide are working on solutions to the Y2Q problem. Two crucial options are proposed: post-quantum cryptography (PQC) and quantum key distribution (QKD).

PQC algorithms are designed to be resilient to cyberattacks involving both classical and quantum computers. These algorithms are still based on classical mathematical complexities and computing techniques. They are expected to replace existing algorithms that are vulnerable to threats from quantum computers.

QKD is a mechanism for secure communications which implements cryptographic protocols based on the principles of quantum physics. QKD requires additional special hardware.

QKD as a technology is still under development, therefore, PQC is expected to be the most common form of quantum-safe cryptography to be adopted worldwide. It is designed with classical methods and expected to work in the existing infrastructure without the need for special hardware, unlike QKD.

Considering the seriousness of the threat and the massive nature of the efforts required, industries, governments and standards organizations are already working on defining standards for algorithms, protocols and systems.

Standards and industry organizations are collaborating to develop new quantum-safe PQC algorithms. The US Department of Commerce’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is at the forefront of this. After a multi-year evaluation process, NIST has announced the selection of four algorithms that are expected as standards for post-quantum cryptography in 2024. Organizations are expected to adopt these cryptographic algorithms in IT and operational technology systems and upgrade their systems to protect against Y2Q threats as part of a quantum-safe migration.

To achieve a better understanding of the Y2Q threat we need to compare and discuss certain similarities and specific differences between Y2Q and Y2K.

Similarities include:

The differences are more serious:

Y2Q is a growing concern as quantum risk in cyberspace slowly emerges. Some important developments demonstrate the seriousness and urgency of the problem. For example: the passing of the Quantum Computing Cybersecurity Preparedness Act by the US government in December 2022 and the end of coverage for state cyberattacks by some insurance companies. Organizations across the globe need to recognize these developments.

Today’s quantum computers are still rudimentary in their capabilities; it will take many years to create quantum computers powerful enough to break current cryptography algorithms. Nevertheless, given the severity of the threat and the massive nature of the efforts required to address it, industries, governments and standards bodies have already started preparing themselves for quantum safe migrations and the adoption of PQC algorithms.

Preparation is vital. An organization should understand and collect all information about cryptography used for various applications within their company, to recognize how different post quantum cryptography and hybrid algorithms would affect the performance of those applications. They should prepare a well-defined roadmap to start the actual migration. In this phase, the transition to quantum-safe cryptography should be implemented in all systems across the organization. The upgraded systems should then be tested and validated for their expected security, functionality and performance.

We do not have a good estimate on the overall cost of the transition to quantum-safe cryptography, but the size and complexity of Y2Q are significantly larger than Y2K, which makes it necessary to develop solutions over the next couple of decades. Organizations need to start preparing as soon as possible.

To learn more, read the Capgemini report Y2Q: A journey to quantum safe cryptography.