Every decision is a climate decision: Here’s why

The earth’s climate is changing faster than at any time in human history. 2023 was the warmest year on record, an estimated 1.48°Celsius above above the 1850-1990 average. It was also marked by what I refer to as “global weirding” – one weather-related disaster after another, all across the planet. Record-breaking heatwaves in Europe, South America, and the southern US; devastating wildfires in Hawaii, the Northwest Territories and the Canary Islands; torrential rains and flooding in Libya, Greece and Brazil – there’s no question that these risks are accelerating in a warmer world.

The stark reality is that we humans, particularly those of us who live in wealthier nations with the highest greenhouse gas emissions, are conducting an unprecedented experiment with the only home we have. Our reliance on this planet is absolute, from the air we breathe and the water we drink to the resources that power every aspect of our economy.

Climate action is not about saving the planet, nor choosing to prioritize the environment over the economy, as many still believe. The truth is that this planet will continue to orbit the sun for millions of years after we are gone. Our presence on it – which is intimately tied to the vitality and health of its life-giving ecosystems – is what is at stake. Today, climate change is already affecting nearly every aspect of the world’s ecosystems, from shifting the populations of tiny phytoplankton that generate nearly half the oxygen we breathe to melting the giant ice sheets that anchor our poles. These changes are putting at risk everything from the reliability of global supply chains to the long-term viability of many of the world’s largest coastal cities. That’s why climate action is, at its core, about saving ourselves.

The good news is that the transition to a sustainable, climate-resilient, and nature-positive future has already begun. A decade ago, the world was set to warm by as much as 5°C by the end of this century. Now, thanks to a broad range of policies – many enacted in response to the Paris Agreement – we’ve managed to reduce this estimated rise to 2.5-2.9°C. However, these efforts still fall short of preventing the “dangerous human interference with the climate system” the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change warned of in 1992.

It’s essential to limit warming as much as possible; in the words of the IPCC, “every bit of warming matters”. But without a significant acceleration in our efforts, in the words of UN chief António Guterres, we are in “deep trouble.” We must act now to dig ourselves out, before it’s too late.

That’s why, in today’s world, every decision we make is inherently a climate decision – whether we recognize it or not. Our collective choices are crucial: either we are opting to build resilience and equity into our society and accelerate the clean energy transition towards a brighter future; or we are choosing to continue investing in our increasingly vulnerable systems and outdated, polluting energy models, leading to a world mired in economic and geopolitical risks. The choice is ours.

Due in large part to the onslaught of climate disasters experienced across the globe in recent years, people are finally waking up to the urgency of climate action. These days, the question I’m most often asked is not “why does this matter?” but rather, “what can I do?” That is exactly the right question to be asking right now, and my answer is this: when it comes to climate decisions and which solutions to implement, there is no silver bullet. However, there is a broad range of “silver buckshot,” from efficiency and clean energy to nature-based solutions and behavioural change. Together, these provide more than enough potential for us to accomplish both our individual goals and those set out in the Paris Agreement this decade.

To describe climate solutions, I use the analogy of a swimming pool. The pool is the earth’s atmosphere, and the level of the water in the pool represents the level of heat-trapping gases in the air. At the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, we put a giant hose into the pool, and we’ve been turning up the heat-trapping gasses coming out of that hose, year after year. As a result, the water in the pool is rising faster and faster, to the point where some can’t even touch the bottom anymore: an increasingly dangerous situation.

So, what can we do about it? First, we need to turn off the hose. We can do this through boosting efficiency, accelerating clean energy, ending deforestation, implementing climate-smart agriculture and – for the very last few drops – deploying carbon capture and storage. But the pool also has a drain, most of which is nature. By protecting, restoring and better managing natural ecosystems, from coastal wetlands to mountain forests, as well as by investing in regenerative agricultural practices, we can turn down the hose and open the drain even further. Innovative finance mechanisms like nature bonds and carbon credits can accelerate this process. To get the last few drops down the drain, we can also deploy direct air capture.

There’s a third type of solution we still need, though. The pool’s rising level of water means our toes can no longer touch the bottom; we need to learn how to swim. That’s adaptation. Our infrastructure and our human systems were designed for a planet that no longer exists. Building resilience into our buildings and supply chains, our public and social systems, our food and water systems, and more requires looking forward into the future to ensure we are prepared for what is still to come.

We need all of these solutions, as much as possible, as soon as possible: and there’s good reason to speed things up. Many of these solutions provide near-term benefits. For example, a 2022 Oxford University study estimated that ending fossil fuel use by 2050 would save $12 trillion, and the faster the transition happened, the higher the savings would be. When we invest in nature-positive solutions, they provide a myriad of co-benefits, including increasing resilience, taking up carbon, and boosting biodiversity; services valued at $7 trillion. And on adaptation, a dollar of prevention saves up to ten times that amount in disaster recovery.

The enormity of the challenge we face, rooted deeply in our reliance on fossil fuels, makes it clear that our collective progress on climate action can’t depend on global summits. It cannot wait for, nor hinge on, what world leaders decide. Indeed, no single group – be it scientists, chief sustainability officers, or political leaders – can successfully tackle it, acting alone; but we can absolutely do it together. And given this array of immediate and effective climate solutions with benefits for people, nature, and the planet, my only question is, what are we waiting for?

Tune into Katharine Hayhoe’s remarks on the session, Climate and Nature: A Systemic Response Needed, that is taking place on Wednesday at 14:30-15:30.