AMNC24: what to know about the new global economy

The World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects has said that the global economy is set to stabilize, while the World Economic Forum's Chief Economists Outlook sounded a note of 'cautious optimism'.

80% of chief economists expect growth to remain unchanged or somewhat stronger this year, and almost seven in ten expect global growth to return to levels above 4% within the next five years.

But in the face of interconnecting risks from geopolitical tension to the climate crisis, governments will need to pursue a different type of growth - one that focusses on innovation, inclusivity, sustainability and resilience.

The meeting will bring together leaders to explore how competing priorities can be balanced while strengthening the recovery and enhancing cooperation. To overcome geopolitical, green, and technology-linked fragmentation, the focus turns to ensuring that trade delivers for security, employment, and development.

Balancing priorities like technology acceleration and inclusive growth is also key, as governments adopt coordinated fiscal, trade and industrial strategies to strengthen recovery and curb inflation.

All times are CST (GMT+8)

25 June

What to Expect from Future Growth

Prospects for global growth have steadily improved this year. However, forecast growth remains slow compared to recent historical standards.

Faisal Alibrahim, Saudi Arabia's Minister of Economy and Planning, joined Amina Mohammed, UN Deputy Secretary-General; Bonnie Chan Yiting, CEO, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX), and Adam Tooze, Director, European Institute, Columbia University, to discuss the major drivers of growth in the years ahead.

Tooze said the central issue for the global economy is the relationship between China and the West: "That is the axis on which globalization has turned for 20 years. Maintaining that relationship in various ways... even if people want to talk about de-risking, diversifying, China-plus... and on the Chinese side, diversifying the range of actors with which they do business so effectively, including in the Gulf.

"That's the story of globalization going forward. It's not an abrupt rupture because the aggregates are too big and the dynamism is too powerful, but it is a story of gear shift and rebalancing and multipolarity and the emergence of multiple different centres of the world that sustain that growth.

"Globalization is no longer a Western-centred story. It's something that engages regions all over the world."

Chan said growth is about capital markets operating "agnostically".

"China has a very big pent-up demand for diversification from the investors - we're talking about a $30 trillion savings pile, waiting to be deployed. And the channel through which this money can flow out to the rest of the world to invest is still limited...

"We can have policies, we can have regulation, but at the end of the day, it takes capital markets to really match opportunities and do the work as well."

Catch up with the full session below:

When Parity Means Growth

Advancing women's employment could add $12 trillion to global GDP - and offer big boosts to individual countries' economic outputs.

William Warshauer, President and CEO, TechnoServe, joined Nurul Izzah Anwar, Chairperson, Social & Economic Research Initiative and Liu Qian
Founder and CEO, Wusawa Advisory, Inc, to discuss how economies can boost parity.

Qian said: "If I were to argue for the growth of the global economy, I would argue one of the most fundamental things is investment into human capital, is to send people to school and especially send girls to school."

She said economists had found that investing in schooling has a much higher return on investment than in the stock market.

"Investment in people is always a lot higher return than investment into the finance product itself."

Trade Routes Redrawn

Global trade is set to grow 3.3% this year, but global dynamics are shifting, with South-South trade surging.

Ren Hongbin, Chairman, CCPIT - China Council for the Promotion of International Trade joined Maggie Chen, Professor of Economics and International Affairs, The Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University; Li Dongsheng, Founder and Chairman, TCL and Busi Mabuza, Chairperson, Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa to discuss the impact reshuffling of trade routes could have on commerce.

Mabuza said: "The opportunity that lies in the African continent is intra-regional trade, because many of the African economies are commodity dependent and the demand for commodities is not necessarily from the African continent."

Chen said in China it's "tricky" finding an optimal balance between providing more clean energy products to the world and concerns about the domestic competition.

US Economy: Where Will It Go?

2023 saw a period of stronger-than-expected growth in the United States, but 2024 hasn't started as strongly. With the Fed keeping interest rates steady, what can we expect from the US economy in the months ahead.

Vera Songwe, Chair of the Board, Liquidity and Sustainability Facility, joined Graham Allison, Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School of Government and Adam Tooze, Director, European Institute, Columbia University, to discuss.

Catch up on the full session below.

Tackling Financial System Fragmentation

Fragmentation could hit the global economy by as much as 7% in the long term, with implications in areas from trade and investment flows to the cost of capital.

Kungsheng Fan, Managing Director; Head, China, Lazard Asset Management Hong Kong, joined Kenny Lam, CEO, Asia-Pacific, Two Sigma; Jonathan Krane, CEO, KraneShares; Fred Hu, Founder, Chairman and CEO, Primavera Capital Group, and Bonnie Chan Yiting, CEO, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX), to discuss how finance leaders can reinforce global cooperation.

The panellists agreed that geopolitical tension globally was holding people back from investing.

Chan said: "I think where I see fragmentation manifest is really that in the last 24 months in particular, when people think about simple questions like, 'Where should I get listed?' the geopolitics get in the way.

"It used to be 'wherever I can fetch the best valuation'... the deal gets done based on commercial considerations. For the most part, that has changed quite significantly in the last two years."

Hu added: “Because of this mounting geopolitical uncertainty, the threat, whether it's real or perceived, people are going to hold back from investing. And so I think the world economy and the global financial system as a whole will pay a very dear price.”

26 June

Financing New Growth Pathways

At the midpoint of the implementation of the 2030 Agenda, only 15% of the targets are on track to be achieved as per the latest UN estimates. This assessment underscores the urgent need for a paradigm shift in how we think about these goals and financing new growth pathways.

What are the most promising initiatives and approaches to accelerate private sector investment and advancing sustainable growth on a global scale?

Wilfred Yiu, Deputy Chief Executive Officer, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) joined Cindy Cui Cui, CEO, Allianz China Life Insurance Co. Ltd and Amina Mohammed, Deputy Secretary-General, United Nations, to discuss.

Mohammed said: "Many economies are not doing well today. The impact of COVID and many other geopolitical crises has impacted higher debt levels, less fiscal space. And that for us is about now focusing on the partnerships that we would have with business, with the public sector, for where those growth drivers would be, where do we need to invest to make this happen?

"We do need an enabling environment and that's why you'll see at the Summit of the Future, we really do focus on an SDG stimulus that looks at fiscal debt and reforms of the multilateral development banks, but we also look at the governance of the finance institutions and the architecture [needed]."

Investment in food systems is a key focus for investment, she added, alongside the energy transition.

Catch up on the full session below.

Finding Growth Amid Complex Risks

A complex array of risks threatens economic progress. Whether tackling the climate emergency or geopolitical tensions, how can global collaboration and innovation protect and propel economic growth?

Peng Sen, President, China Society of Economic Reform (CSER), joined Mohamad Al-Ississ, Jordan's Minister of Finance; Busi Mabuza, Chairperson, Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa and Andre Hoffmann, Vice-Chairman, Roche.

Hoffman set the tone, saying: "The current prosperity model is not fit for purpose in the long-term. What we need to address is the qualitative dimension not just the quantitative. We need an integrated model."

Catch up on the key quotes and the full session in the X thread below.

Cooperation in a Competitive World

Geopolitical conflict and competition are increasing, despite a greater need than ever for cooperation. In a contentious environment, how can global cooperation be enhanced to address priorities?

Rafizi Ramli, Malaysia's Minister of Economy, joined Paula Ingabire, Rwanda's Minister of Information Communication Technology and Innovation; Mohamad Al-Ississ, Jordan's Minister of Finance; Lynn Kuok, Lee Kuan Yew Chair in Southeast Asia Studies, Brookings Institution; Bruce Jones, Senior Fellow, Center for Security, Strategy and Technology, Brookings Institution, and Bo Li, Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Rafizi said: "What is good for the global economy is for good us because trade is a conduit for capital deployment, for technology deployment and we’ve seen how trade has been able to level the playing field for many countries, especially the smaller ones."

Ingabire said technology was a growth driver for Rwanda, but that there was a danger in terms of global governance of AI that there might be siloed conversations "where we may end up with multiple frameworks on how we govern AI as a technology".

Catch up on the full session in the X thread below.

The Future of Growth Report 2024: A multidimensional framework to assess the quality of economic growth across 107 countries globally. The report characterizes nations’ economic growth across four dimensions: Innovativeness; Inclusiveness; Sustainability; and Resilience.

Chief Economists Outlook: May 2024: The May 2024 Chief Economists Outlook explores key trends in the global economy, including the latest outlook for growth, inflation, monetary and fiscal policy, and the implications of recent geopolitical and domestic political developments. This series of reports draws on the individual and collective perspectives of a group of leading chief economists through consultations with the World Economic Forum’s Chief Economists Community and a regular Chief Economists Survey.

The Global Cooperation Barometer 2024: This World Economic Forum report, written in collaboration with McKinsey & Company, measures the current state of global cooperation. It is meant to serve as a tool for leaders to better understand the contours of cooperation broadly and along five pillars – trade and capital flows, innovation and technology, climate and natural capital, health and wellness, and peace and security.

Empowering Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises through Digital Business Model Innovation: While leading manufacturers have progressed in digital transformation, SMEs face significant challenges due to financial and operational constraints. This white paper is a collaboration between the World Economic Forum’s Centre for Advanced Manufacturing and Supply Chains and the Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution Brazil. It explores opportunities and pathways for digital business model innovation to develop new levels of competitiveness within global supply chains.

Geopolitical Rivalry and Business: 10 Recommendations for Policy Design: This whitepaper draws upon 13 expert interviews with senior executives from international businesses to outline both how international business perceives evolving geopolitical dynamics and reacts to it, and how businesses can advise governments on managing cross-border commercial ties.