3 key priorities to avert a climate-driven health catastrophe by 2050

While the impacts of climate change on the global economy and nature are well documented, some of the most dire consequences of the planet’s rising temperatures will be on human health and the global healthcare system.

In a joint report released in 2024 — Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health — the World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman calculated that as many as 14.5 million additional people could die by 2050 because of global warming. Tens of millions more are likely to face long-term sickness, disabilities and displacement as homelands become uninhabitable from the ravages of drought and flooding.

Another 500 million could be exposed to diseases like malaria and Zika as disease-carrying vectors expand into North America and Europe.

The global economy and health system will face losses of more than $12.5 trillion, further limiting the ability to respond. And in one last poignant misfortune, the populations suffering the brunt of climate calamities will reside in parts of the world least financially able to relieve the pain and least responsible for the warming.

Simply put: the planet faces decades of suffering, dislocation and economic loss if we fail to make significant progress curbing global warming’s impact on health.

While there is still hope for emissions reduction, policymakers and the healthcare industry must prepare for the likelihood that we’ll fall short of restricting the rise in temperatures to 1.5 °C. Currently, a warming trajectory of between 2.5 and 2.7 °C is the more realistic scenario, according to the United Nations Environment Programme, and the one on which Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Human Health predictions are based.

Although often previously absent from climate change discussions, these nightmarish visions finally found a place on the agenda at the 2023 United Nations climate summit when 123 nations signed the first-ever Declaration on Climate and Health and pledged $1 billion to make health systems more climate resilient. While the show of unity marked an important first step, many more are needed.

In November, at COP29 in Azerbaijan and the Rio de Janeiro G20 summit, world leaders have two more opportunities to jumpstart the global response. Given health’s impact on people’s ability to participate in the broader economy, there are three priorities that would help nations and the global economy get ahead of the cresting public health calamity:

1. Focus on making local healthcare systems climate-resilient;

2. Unleash innovation in healthcare, life sciences, and academia targeting climate-induced health conditions;

3. Allocate government resources and enact policies to enable a robust global response in both developed and developing nations.

Here’s how to support each of those goals, in detail.

The pressing challenge of climate change requires resilient global health systems capable of safeguarding public health during large-scale and potentially lengthy health crises. The reality we’re facing, is that, even without major climate events in the equation, many health systems around the world would not currently be considered resilient.

We define resiliency as the ability of a system to avoid and contain a crisis, stabilize after the crisis has hit and, finally, recover from it. We saw firsthand the lack of resiliency during the COVID-19 pandemic when hospitals worldwide were overwhelmed by both demand and staff absenteeism.

To become climate resilient, localities need first to understand how climate will impact their systems. This can be achieved by conducting research and utilizing simulation tools to assess preparedness and help prioritize needs and plan responses. To achieve climate resilience, health systems must fortify infrastructure and ensure provision of essential resources, enabling them to limit the health impacts and shorten recovery times.

To support the development of these capabilities, governments must encourage global knowledge sharing and cooperation among public health systems and organizations like the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Centralizing data collection and analysis and disseminating research findings can help lower local costs and provide more advanced data sets to localities.

Citizens also must be enlisted through education and outreach initiatives. Giving the public timely and accurate information will enable individuals to take preventative measures to protect their health and the health of their communities. Part of this effort requires enhanced early warning systems that leverage technology and the media. Regular stress tests of public health systems, like those implemented in banking after the 2008 financial crisis, also could flag problems at specific facilities.

Innovation through private-sector and academic research and development is a cornerstone of building climate-resilient health systems and uncovering new vaccines and treatments. To unleash it and elicit long-term, private-sector commitments requires many more targeted research grants, along with a reduction in red tape on longer-horizon projects — like vaccine efforts during COVID.

Policymakers also should provide clarity on innovation needs and priorities, while ensuring the establishment of adequate reimbursement mechanisms that allow companies to develop vital products and services not immediately commercially viable. Specifically, this kind of policy would begin to address the inequities in care for low-income populations that climate change will lay bare.

Long-term success in building climate-resilient health systems depends on sustainable government funding and supportive policies that reflect the long innovation cycles in pharmaceutical, medical device and digital health technology R&D. To reinforce that commitment, nations should include among their nationally determined contributions to battling climate change a pledge of support to address health challenges and ensure a just climate transition.

To bolster the developing world’s infrastructure and guarantee sufficient vaccines and treatments and their rapid deployment would require global and multinational funding mechanisms as well as individual contributions by developed nations. Public-private partnerships and cross-sector collaborations are also essential tools to achieve these goals.

The path to building climate-resilient health systems is complex and requires coordinated actions across multiple domains. We are running out of time to set these in motion — and so policymakers and industry must not delay.