How 6 heavy-emitting industries are working to decarbonize

A decade ago, before the Paris Agreement was negotiated at COP21, high-emitting sectors across heavy industry and heavy-duty transportation were considered almost impossible to decarbonize or ‘too-hard-to-abate’.

Under the Paris Agreement, we need to reach net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Aviation, shipping, trucking, aluminium, cement and concrete, and steel account for around 25% of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), which could rise to 50% by 2050 if left unchecked.

But today, these six sectors are taking crucial steps to decarbonize through the work of the 99 members of the First Movers Coalition (FMC) and its 13 government partners.

Simply put, the First Movers Coalition is a collection of leading global companies who are using their purchasing power to send a strong demand signal for near-zero-emission products and services.

By committing to purchase significant quantities of these products and services made with breakthrough low-carbon technologies by 2030, FMC members ‘signal’ to producers to ramp up investment and production, ultimately spurring the market and accelerating their deployment.

Launched by the US government and the World Economic Forum at COP26 in 2021, membership has since tripled.

In addition to the carbon-intense sectors, the FMC is working to stimulate demand for carbon dioxide removal technologies.

In total, 125 commitments have been made across those seven sectors, which by 2030, will represent around $16 billion in aggregated demand and an estimated 31 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in annual reductions.

In the coalition’s latest status report, Annie Hills, Senior Advisor, United States Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, and Rob van Riet, the Forum’s Programme Head, Climate Action and First Movers Coalition, sum up the complexity and urgency of the challenge and why the continued work of the coalition is so important.

“We are approaching the halfway point in this ‘decade of action’ and the window of opportunity to demonstrate and commercialize these innovative technologies is rapidly closing, given the urgency to scale-up them up sufficiently to enable net-zero emissions by 2050.

“We are also aiming at a moving target, as global demand across these economically essential sectors is projected to climb steeply in the coming decades.”

By 2050, it’s estimated there will be an 80% increase in demand for aluminium, 40% for cement and concrete, and 30% for steel. Demand for sea freight is predicted to triple and that for trucking to double in the same timeframe.

Another challenge in decarbonizing these sectors is that around 50% of the reductions needed to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 need to come from technologies not yet commercially available at scale.

But in the two and a half years since the FMC launched, the six high-emitting sectors have taken strides on the path to decarbonization. Here are some of the stand-out achievements to date…

The steel industry accounts for around 8% of global GHG emissions, with demand forecast to increase 30% by 2050. The FMC has secured commitments from 27 companies that at least 10% of steel purchased by 2030 will be near-zero emissions.

Together, concrete and steel account for around 6% of global GHG emissions, with demand projected to increase 40% by 2050. Decarbonization options include clinker substitution using non-fossil-based supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs). This newest sector of the FMC has secured commitments from seven companies to ensure at least 10% of cement/concrete purchased is near-zero emissions by 2030.

Aluminium accounts for around 2% of global GHG emissions, with demand forecast to increase by 40% by 2030. The FMC has secured support from 19 companies for two commitments: first to ensure at least 10% of primary aluminium procured will be low-carbon; the second commitment is optional, to ensure at least 50% of aluminium procured is “secondary” (manufactured from scrap).

Aviation accounts for around 3% of global GHG emissions, but this share could quadruple by 2050 without deep decarbonization. The FMC has secured commitments from 28 companies to replace at least 5% of conventional jet fuel demand with sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) that reduce life-cycle emissions by at least 85%. While SAF offer the sector one of the quickest pathways to decarbonization, the volumes produced represent less than 1% of total jet fuel demand.

Shipping accounts for more than 2% of global GHG emissions, with maritime trade volumes set to triple by 2050. The FMC has secured commitments from 17 companies to power deep-sea shipping with zero-emission fuels (ZEF). Carriers must use at least 5% ZEF by 2030, while cargo owners must use ZEF-powered ships for 10% of goods by 2030, rising to 100% by 2040.

Trucking accounts for around 4% of global GHG emissions, with demand for road freight set to double by 2050. The FMC has secured commitments from 16 companies to ensure at least 30% of heavy-duty and 100% of medium-duty trucks they buy or use will be zero-emission by 2030. In-scope technologies include battery-electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles.

Although not a heavy-emitting sector, carbon dioxide removal will be critical for global decarbonization efforts across all industrial sectors. Reaching the Paris climate goals will require 10 billion tonnes of CO2 removal every year by 2050.

The majority of this will have to come from durable CDR – solutions that can demonstrably store captured carbon for 1,000+ years. However, advance purchases stand at just 11 Mt today.

While durable/engineered CDR scores highly on integrity, its scalability is hampered by high costs, lack of mature measurement, reporting and verification (MRV), and low support from policymakers.

Eleven companies have joined FMC’s CDR commitment to contract for 50,000+ tonnes or $25 million of durable and scalable CO2 removal by 2030.

Here are some of the main achievements within in the FMC sector to date...