How political leadership transitions could shape Southeast Asia's future

Political leadership changes are sweeping across the globe in 2024, with more than 2 billion voters in 50 countries expected to cast their ballots in elections this year. The resulting leadership transitions could reshape global and national political landscapes, bringing new opportunities and connections between countries.

Over the past two years, many of the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have already witnessed significant political developments. From a complete regime change in Malaysia, to the return of familiar faces or families in Indonesia, the Philippines and Cambodia, many of these political shifts are bringing new hope and opportunities for ASEAN citizens.

However, it’s not yet certain that these leadership changes will create progress in terms of greater regional solidarity, much-needed economic reforms (such as a common currency) and deeper regional integration – all of which would enhance ASEAN’s cohesion and prosperity.

Undoubtedly, recent leadership transitions could significantly alter the dynamics within ASEAN and among its member states.

Anwar Ibrahim’s election in 2022 as Malaysia’s 10th prime minister, for example, has invigorated ASEAN regional relations according to a recent study by the Institute of Strategic and International Studies Malaysia. His proactive diplomacy emphasises closer ties within ASEAN and beyond, showcasing Malaysia’s commitment to regional cooperation and stability. For example, Ibrahim has already made efforts to address pressing issues such as the recent violence and resulting humanitarian crisis in Myanmar.

In Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto will assume the presidency in October 2024. Subianto – who has a controversial background and a questionable human rights record from his time as an ex-miliary general during the dictatorial Suharto regime in the 1990s – has pledged to uphold an “Indonesia First” policy. This aims to prioritise the interests of the country’s 280 million citizens, rather than bowing to foreign influence.

In May 2024, Singapore’s Lawrence Wong was sworn in as the country’s 4^th prime minister, introducing a new leadership style and refreshing his People’s Action Party’s brand. Wong plans to adopt an open and consultative leadership style during his tenure, simultaneously strengthening political ties with Malaysia and other neighbouring countries. But this softer stance contrasts with the country’s foreign policy and its current level of spending on defence versus other areas such as healthcare.

More recently, Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen transferred power to his son, Hun Manet, while Vietnam's President Vo Van Thuong resigned, tainted by a corruption scandal, with his former security chief, To Lam, taking his place in May 2024. In Thailand, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin lasted barely a year in office before Paetongtarn Shinawatra was entrusted to run the country in August 2024.

Finally, the Philippines saw Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. return to the Malacanang Palace following the country’s 17th presidential election in 2022. Taking an outright stance on foreign relations at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Bongbong indicated that ASEAN stability will require both China and the US to manage their relationship in a more responsible manner.

These recent leadership changes among ASEAN countries present opportunities to address current trade barriers and advance regional economic integration through policy coordination, infrastructure development, capacity building and trade liberalisation. These transitions offer a chance to reassess the long-term strategic vision of the ASEAN trade bloc, allowing new leaders to introduce innovative ideas and reforms to revitalise integration efforts.

ASEAN’s diverse governance structures – ranging from federal constitutional monarchies to single-party socialist republics – create complex regional dynamics, however. New leaders may have distinct perspectives on trade liberalisation, market access and regional collaboration, influencing participation and cooperation within ASEAN.

The bloc’s unity has been tested by crises such as the humanitarian situation in Myanmar and varying positions on the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. The commitment of new leaders to trade bloc objectives could influence ASEAN’s negotiation stance with other trading partners around the world, potentially affecting the outcomes of trade talks and agreements.

Solidarity among member nations is crucial to ASEAN progress. At various times, the region has explored the potential of adopting a single common currency, similar to the Euro in the European Union. Revisiting this idea could promote economic integration, reduce transaction costs for the region’s traders, companies and consumers, and enhance price stability. Achieving this would require substantial political will and economic alignment among member states.

Beyond regular ASEAN meetings and the biennial Southeast Asian Games (a sporting event involving 11 of the region's countries), there needs to be a stronger emphasis on deeper integration as a bloc. This could include initiatives such as harmonising regulatory frameworks, improving infrastructure connectivity and enhancing digital integration to facilitate smoother business operations and cross-border trade.

The ASEAN’s various new leaders could also work together to create a borderless region, or at the very least to remove passport controls to facilitate ease of travel between member countries. This would help to move talent within the region, reducing inequality and providing greater access to opportunities for more people. Fostering educational exchanges and collaborative research initiatives could further strengthen ties and mutual understanding among ASEAN nations.

This is how ASEAN leaders could work together to build a more cohesive and resilient community that is better equipped to navigate the challenges and opportunities of the future.

Leadership transitions within ASEAN are reshaping regional dynamics, influencing diplomatic engagements, policy orientations and economic strategies across member states. By understanding nuanced governance structures, anticipating the impacts of leadership changes and fostering regional cooperation, ASEAN countries can navigate these transitions smoothly, promoting peace, stability and prosperity in Southeast Asia.

Compromise and commitment to camaraderie will be key to success.