How the Maldives can revive its economy through sustainable growth

When UNDP, the UN's development arm, opened its premises in the Maldives in the 1970s, the threat of "disappearing" was farthest from people’s everyday worries or development discourse. The agency faced other perils, including a cholera epidemic and a lack of access to necessities.

One of the agency’s first moves was deploying the motorboat "Sulha" to reach remote communities, supporting the government in delivering vital supplies and services across the Maldives' 22 atolls.

Over 45 years since the Sulha boat first set sail, UNDP has remained a steadfast partner for the Maldives in a journey of trust, innovation, and partnership. As the nation evolved in governance, embraced nature-positive development, and pursued growth, one word threads it together, defining the country's journey: resilience.

In many ways, the Maldives is making considerable advances towards a stronger democracy. Across the world this is never a singular nor direct path, but often a bumpy one with lessons learnt or discarded. Transitions bring upheaval. Establishing stable political institutions requires time, effort, and constant adjustments.

Decision-making, once limited to a select few, now involves elected representatives, and local governments are creating unique identities, allowing people to contest ideas, exert pressure on local leaders to deliver on promises, and insist on greater accountability. Media, civil society, and advocacy groups have grown in capacity, enhancing their watchdog roles. Maldivians deeply believe in the power of the vote, the Constitution and doing right by nature.

UNDP's role in strengthening democratic institutions in the Maldives, from advocating constitutional and policy reforms to supporting new governance institutions in the 2000s, has been widely recognized. Over time, UNDP has helped strengthen state oversight through support to the People’s Majlis, Human Rights Commission, and Local Government Authority – to name a few. Today, we continue our governance work with the support of partners, focusing on legislation, judicial integrity, civic empowerment, gender equality, and effective public services.

In the past, the Maldives' development journey has seen various economic drives that have been at the expense of nature. As in many countries and too frequently, economic growth has led to the irreversible loss of precious ecosystems like coral reefs and mangroves.

In the past, such resource-intensive models have proven unsustainable, pushing countries and communities to seek more viable alternatives while trying to reverse past damage. Carbon emissions affect everyone, yet developing countries bear the greatest burden. As the world scrambles to redress past actions through carbon markets, offset programmes and renewable energy projects, temperatures keep rising.

Countries like the Maldives, on the cusp of growth and industrialization, don’t have to choose between progress and preservation. They can adopt a development model that avoids past mistakes, embracing pathways aligned with nature that capitalizes on the value of their natural assets. The Maldives’ openness to pursue a “Blue Economy” is promising and will demand a whole-of-government, whole-of-society approach. Success will require systemic transformation – optimizing legislation, incentivizing financing, and nurturing a new generation of entrepreneurs. Without international and domestic private sector stepping up and on the same page, this will not be feasible.

By income-based measures, the Maldives is a development success story, largely fueled by the rise of tourism in the 1970s. Over 40 years, the country averaged 7.4% annual GDP growth, transforming from one of the world's poorest nations in the 1980s to an upper-middle-income country by 2011. By 2023, per capita income more than doubled to $22,362 from 1990s, life expectancy reached 81 years, and poverty rates dropped to near zero.

Yet, despite these achievements, the Maldives now faces an economic crisis fuelled by rising debt, prompting reflection on whether the country’s growth model has truly delivered the right kind of growth. The recent surges of global inflation and the resulting interest rates have raised the cost of borrowing for developing countries such as the Maldives. The UN estimates that borrowing costs for developing countries are two to four times higher than in the US.

Tourism is a key economic pillar; however, it employs only 12% of the local labour force, and generates significant income only for a few. The Maldives produces just 10% of its food needs and imports nearly all essential commodities. The fisheries sector, once vital, has seen its GDP share decline from 6% to 3.5% over the past two decades. The country’s heavy reliance on fossil fuels has led to an average fuel bill of 10% of GDP since 2018—around $537 million annually. The country’s leaders want to see a way back to food and energy security while addressing the significant inequalities that persist between the capital region and the outer islands, with 92% of the nation’s poor living in the atolls.

As Maldives President Dr. Mohamed Muizzu said during his statement at the UNGA Plenary of the Summit of the Future, “It is time to turn the page to a chapter where multilateralism is more than a concept – but a lived reality.”

A million years before the dinosaurs vanished, the Indian tectonic plate shifted northward, creating a fissure in the Earth's crust. This rupture led to the emergence of a volcanic ridge, which gradually eroded over time. As the ocean floor subsided with the volcano, corals began to populate and grow around it, forming the fringed reef of the Maldives atolls.

For a country whose birth lay in regeneration, resilience and a renewal to more sustainable growth will shape its future.