Global markets in a fractured world
Good morning, afternoon, night, wherever you are. One of the first panel sessions of Davos 2018 focuses on the state of the markets. It's a rolled gold panel with five top-level CEOs moderated by Fox Business News' Maria Bartiromo.
Steven Schwartzman, Chairman, Chief Executive and Co-Founder of the Blackstone Group.
Adena Friedman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Nasdaq Inc.
Bartiromo opens by asking why the markets are so buoyant in the face of so many clear risks. She points out new headlines this morning on US Tariffs as one example of the risks to global economic strength.
Thiam points out that France and Europe in general are buoyant, and trade is growing faster than world GDP.
Friedman says there is a pent up demand for companies to go public, and there is a good pipeline of those looking for finance.
Appel is definitely a sceptic as far as global risk is concerned. Trade is on the up and up, protectionism only impacts the workers of the protected country. If the US slaps on tariffs, only American workers will suffer, he says.
Thiam says that a lot of people overlook the spread of prosperity, the expansion of education: "I'm surprised sometimes by how surprised people are."
This is an extremely optimistic panel.
Schwarzman, there are some major imbalances, the US trade deficit with China will have to be addressed. "China grew behind a tariff wall". But he is optimistic that will be addressed over the medium term. More In the short term, however, NAFTA is a more "colourful" and pressing challenge that will come to a head this year.
If North Korea becomes a hot war, says Schwarzman, "I think you'll see markets at different levels. And that doesn't mean up."
Moyhnihan says fiery trade rhetoric has to settle back to how do long term imbalances get redressed. There is a good argument that the US may well become more competitive, and a more attractive place to locate manufacturing and other operations. But with full employment, there is a challenge around where workers will come from, particularly in an environment where immigration is being restricted.
Friedman: "I see the US as being a very attractive place for business."
Tax reforms will drive business to the US: lower taxes, lowering regulation, an educated workforce. Schwarzman is a US economy booster.
Accept our marketing cookies to access this content.
These cookies are currently disabled in your browser.
Appel throws a little water on the party, saying that tax reforms which might lead to higher budget deficits and other short term sugar fixes won't solve structural challenges. The recipe for success is better productivity: education of the people, open borders, better infrastructure, competitive pressure through open borders. Look, for instance, at Singapore.
Thiam: "I've learned over time never to bet against the US economy."
Schwarzman takes on the US infrastructure deficit, $2 trillion at least. The US infrastructure approval process takes 10 - 15 years due to the country's thicket of regulations. Compare that to other countries, which take, maybe 2 years for similar processes and people shake their heads.
There may well by something in the "Australian model" of public-private infrastructure development, says Schwarzman.
Thiam agrees, countries with strong infrastructure development have relatively efficient regulatory frameworks.
Some discussion on the panel about Europe and the strength of its reforms. Multiple layers of governance that make decision-making more complex means that "things always happen last" according to Blackstone's Schwarzman.
On brexit, Friedman says there is a great opportunity for the UK if the economy, employment practices and labour force the right way is positioned the right way.
This is all predicated on good negotiations, and there are lots of uncertainties: "You have to worry about it," says Moynhihan.
Question from an Indian Global Shaper in the audience: "Will we ever be able to shift the balance of power between Europe and US to other economies."
Moynihan replies the Indian economy is really strong: "It's all good, I don't think the world has to do anything, it just has to keep doing what it's doing. It's coming."