Strategic Update: The Future of Finance
After the financial crisis and slow recovery, the challenge for finance is to create a resilient, accessible financial system that people trust. How can this be achieved? What role should regulation play in the world of finance and how extensive should it be? How will technology influence the way financial services are delivered and used?
These are some of the questions the panel of financial services experts focuses on in this session.
Governments and financial regulators are still coming to terms with the fallout of the banking crisis, looking for the right mix of regulation, fiscal and monetary policies that will bring balance back into the international banking system.
Anne Richards, CEO of M&G Investments, says a key realisation has been that fiscal and monetary policies need to complement one another.
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This is a particular challenge given that regulations tend to look at the system from a national perspective while banks are largely international in scope, she says.
Regulators need to keep pace
Adding to what governments and central banks can do, Mario Greco, CEO of Zurich Insurance Group, homes in on the role regulators play.
Regulators have tightened the framework banks, insurers and other financial service providers operate within, but, emphasises Greco: “Regulation has not helped get Europe out of the economic crisis and bring about an aligned system.”
He adds that regulators also need to differentiate between banks and other financial service providers, rather than imposing the same solvency rules on insurance companies as they do on banks, when the two work quite differently in this context.
John Cryan, CEO of Deutsche Bank in Germany, adds that regulation is becoming more and more granular, which means that traditional financial institutions become increasingly restricted in their own product innovation.
Making the most of fintech innovation
Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff says the growing transformation of the financial sector through technology has profound implications with new, unregulated fintech companies competing head-on with traditional banks.
“I have a feeling that the regulators are probably way behind what is going on.”
The biggest exponents of this are the emerging markets, with India and China leading the way, according to David M. Rubenstein, CEO, The Carlyle Group.
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In these markets there is a distinct trend toward bypassing traditional finance and going to new providers, he says. Kenneth Rogoff references China’s internet lending as one example of this.
John Cryan cautions that fintech companies often highlight that they can take a lot of ‘friction’ out of finance, and that this also means taking profit out of the system.
Ken Rogoff sees the digital trend bringing about a move to a central bank digital currency sooner than expected.
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Digitalisation across the financial system raises questions of security for all who participate in it. Anne Richard of M&G sees a trend in data regulation and financial regulation converging. However, there is no framework get to accommodate this future need.
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The final part of the discussion centres on what went wrong in the banking crisis and how the sector has changed since.
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John Cryan also highlights: “We didn’t apply common sense. Banks are overmanaged now, but we do apply common sense.” He is also in favour of the stress testing of financial institutions that was brought in in the wake of the crisis.
Kenneth Rogoff is concerned that, in spite of this, the financial ecosystem is still very unstable. If the European Central Bank was to unwind right now - for example by selling its Spanish and Italian bonds - he fears that the Eurozone would collapse. But his fear is not shared by other panelists.