What are the main challenges and opportunities on the geopolitical horizon in 2017?
Geopolitical risks feature highly in this year’s edition of the Global Risks Report, with weapons of mass destruction, terrorism and interstate conflict all in the top 10 global risks in terms of impact. What are the main geopolitical risks on the horizon, and what can world leaders do to navigate them safely?
Risks are now cross-border
Shirley Ann Jackson, President, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI), begins by explaining that risks, wherever they happen, have a knock-on effect everywhere.
An attack on a major internet and phone provider could mean that almost a million people lose access, for instance, she says.
Risks are so much harder to foresee these days, she continues, because when you have human- and man-made infrastructure and activity that intersect with things that are inherently unpredictable - such as earthquakes - they can create opportunities for additional mischief.
Nikolaus von Bomhard, Chairman of the Board of Management, Munich Re, says that the world is fragile and it doesn’t take much to “flip” something. In addition, to echo what Shirley Ann Jackson says, "the world is so connected now."
“A single event can change everything, there are so many involved now. In years previously it was a relatively clear set of 2 or 3 world powers of relevance and you knew who to call when something went wrong.”
Risks we are living with now
Tzipi Livni, Former Foreign Minister and Co-Leader of the Opposition, Knesset, says we know nothing about the future anymore: "In an hour the President starts office and nobody knows what will happen next.”
“We are judging things to come with ancient tools,” she adds.
She goes onto list further real-time threats to global security:
“Power is in the hands of the people not politicians. Social media is changing the power of the press, now everyone can tweet something that changes the world.”
Referring to the terrorist group ISIS, she says that: “It is the same religious war as hundreds of years ago, but modern society doesn’t know how to handle it.”
Red lines are being crossed in terms of values and liberal values are being eroded, she continues. "When one crosses the line it gives legitimacy to a politician the other side of the world to do the same."
The result is that young people feel disenfranchised. The answer, she says, is to give the next generation something to believe in. “We need a new vision, one that says: it’s not the same old establishment but something that is part of their identity and worth fighting for"
There is cyber-security as well, she adds, “Wars are no longer between governments or organisations - someone can turn off the light in another state just because they want to.”
Shinichi Kitaoka, President, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), speaks about the delicate balance of politics in East Asia, partly because of North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.
What will Trump do
With the inauguration happening today, everyone is asked what they thought Trump's first moves might be.
Shirley Ann Jackson says that the first issue on his table will be the relationship with Russia and its implications in the Middle East. She also says that Sino-US relations will be an urgent priority.
But she says that some risks can be foreseen, if only we pick up on the signs better. She cites the history of relations between Russia and Ukraine as a clear indication of what was to come: “We should be able to put these things together and at least be on alert, that doesn't mean we can prevent them.”
Picking up on the concerns of Shinichi Kitaoka over North Korea, Shirley says that the issue is the mindset that what confers power and prestige is military power.
“There has always been this high degree of interest in nuclear around the world,” she says. “The real question is what are nations collectively willing to do about it."
Nikolaus von Bomhard picks up on the theme of young people and politics and says it is very hard to find a politician who has enough integrity and who takes personal political risk - and therefore runs the risk of failure - and is someone that the electorate can believe in.
Tzipi Livni agrees, adding that: “It would be nice if the vision they are presented with would not be against something, but for something, something that people can feel united behind.”
Trump’s first test is whether he is willing to wait a bit before making decisions, she continues. She also would like to ask him what "Make America great again" actually means: “The US is a very important global player, we could support his vision if we knew what it meant especially if it meant defending our values,” she says.
Shinichi Kitaoka returns to the question of nuclear armament and says that what Trump must not do is recognise North Korea as a nuclear power. This would inevitably lead to the armament of South Korea which would inevitably lead to Japan wanting to go to nuclear as well.
Trump should also continue the US’ operation of the freedom of navigation in the South China Seas, he said.
The solutions
Shirley Ann Jackson said that artificial intelligence could well prove useful in helping us navigate and predict risk. “I believe one needs to do a little more risk mapping but AI and cognitive systems have a big and sophisticated role to play,” she asserts.
Nikolaus von Bomhard says that governments need to provide education and that businesses can play a bigger role in helping politicians solve the problems of today, saying that "they can contribute a fair share to the solutions of what we have discussed today.”
But Tzipi Livni says that it’s not only about education: "Young people’s world is not in schools, it is in social networks and those are being abused to spread hatred. We have to wrap our message in the manner that says it’s about them not us, and that things are going in the wrong direction.”
Meanwhile Shinichi Kitaoka touches on another issue for East Asia - its declining demographic, but says that policy changes within Japan were addressing the issue.
But about young people, he said it wasn’t just enough to give them education, you had to give them a job, in order to make them feel like they had a place in the world.