Davos 2023: Day 1 - Cooperation in a Fragmented World

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Robin Pomeroym host, Radio Davos: It's Monday, the 16th of January. Welcome to Davos, 2023.

Børge Brende, President of the World Economic Forum: It will happen against the most complicated backdrop in decades, geopolitically and geoeconomically.

Robin Pomeroy: The World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting is taking place from now to the 20th of January. It comes as multiple crises deepen divisions and fragment the geopolitical landscape. We'll hear from the president of the World Economic Forum on some of his priorities for this week.

Børge Brende: What we need to avoid is that the world goes into a new recession.

Robin Pomeroy: Børge Brende tells us about the challenges ahead.

Børge Brende: And we have to avoid that we're moving into the 1970s again with low growth, high inflation, high debt and after some time high unemployment.

Robin Pomeroy: Davos 2023 will aim to bring people together at a time of global fragmentation.

Børge Brende: It is less likely that we can solve the global challenges if it ends with confrontations and wars.

Robin Pomeroy: On this episode, Artificial Intelligence that can prevent wildfires. We dip into the metaverse and hear music from an instrument with a 1000-year history.

Joseph Tawadros, musician: The word lute actually comes from oud, oud-lute.

Robin Pomeroy: I'm Robin Pomeroy, podcast editor at the World Economic Forum. And with this first Daily Show from Annual Meeting 2023. This is Radio Davos.

Welcome to Radio Davos and welcome to Davos. It's Monday, day one and this is the first of five daily shows every day from Davos, I'll be bringing you Radio Davos daily and every day I'll have a different co-host. We have a great line-up of co-hosts. All of them are podcasters, and I'm delighted to introduce the first one of the week. It's my favourite podcaster of all: Linda Lacina. Linda, how are you?

Linda Lacina, podcast host, Meet the Leader: Hi, Robin, how are you?

Robin Pomeroy: Very well, thank you. And I'm sure all our listeners are familiar with Linda Lacina because she presents Radio Devil's sister podcast, Meet the Leader. Give us a quick flavour of what Meet the Leader is, Linda.

Linda Lacina: Meet the Leader is top leaders in non-profits, in business and government, sharing how they personally are tackling some of the world's biggest challenges.

Robin Pomeroy: And you do long-form interviews with them. They're really engaging. People should go and check them out. Now, you and I were both sat in this room half a year ago in May, which was the first in-person Davos since the Coronavirus. And you did dozens and dozens of interviews and you've been putting them out as Meet the Leaders in the weeks and months since that. I mean, can you give us a flavour? Just tell people which should they go and check out? They're all available online.

Linda Lacina: Absolutely. We talked to Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater. He talked about ways that triggers in history that can tell you where the next crisis is coming from.

Robin Pomeroy: Very apropos for our meeting today.

Linda Lacina: Absolutely. We talked to non-profit founder Lindiwe Matlali who runs a non-profit Africa Teen Geeks, which shows how entrepreneurship can transform Africa. And also, we learned from the people had really unique jobs, like Tencent's chief exploration officer and Volvo Group's chief purchasing officer, how these really unique jobs give people a really, really unique insight into different technologies and how business is transforming.

Robin Pomeroy: I mean, I love Meet the Leader, Linda. You won't be surprised to hear and I really, really urge our listeners to go and check them out. I mean, we are in a very privileged position to have access to some of these people, and it can be very, very interesting. What I love about Meet the Leader is you ask them kind of slightly off the wall question sometimes about their influences and their favourite books and their favourite habit. So anyway, that's Meet the Leader. You can find it on wef.ch/podcasts, where all our podcasts are. Now Linda, this is my test to you. What is the theme of Davos 2023?

Linda Lacina: It is cooperation in a fragmented world.

Robin Pomeroy: Cooperation in a fragmented world. Well, let's hear the person, one of the people, best placed to tell us what to expect this week is the president of the World Economic Forum, Børge Brende. Our colleague Beatrice de Cario caught up with him a few days ago. Here's what he had to say.

Beatrice Di Caro, Radio Davos: Børge, thank you for joining today. What can we expect from the Annual Meeting 2023?

Børge Brende: It will happen against the most complicated backdrop in decades, geopolitically and geo-economically. And we have all the right people in Davos to really try to find solutions in the fragmented world. We have 1700 of the leading business people. We have almost 400 public figures, ministers, head of states and also civil society. And what we need to avoid is that the world goes into a new recession. We need to recreate global growth. It has to be inclusive, it has to create jobs. But without growth, there will be no prosperity. And we also know that we have to stop the fragmentation that we are currently seeing of the global economy. We have to continue to trade with each other, to invest with each other. That's the only way to also make sure that we will revive economic growth.

Beatrice Di Caro: And you mentioned the theme cooperation in a fragmented world. What does that mean to you?

Børge Brende: For me, it is so important that we continue to have a dialogue with each other that we also try to find solutions to global challenges. Global challenges need global solutions, be it economic growth, be it on trade, but also on biodiversity, but also on climate. We really are in the same boat and we have to act accordingly. Lately we have seen wars, we have seen conflicts, and all this is also leading to a situation where it is less likely that we can solve the global challenges if it ends with confrontations and wars. What we need is to use this opportunity to come together and find areas where we can cooperate, even in a world with competition.

Beatrice Di Caro: And what are you most looking forward to in terms of session speakers themes? What excites you the most about our program?

Børge Brende: So there's so much happening in Davos. There are more than 400 official sessions and then there are so many other sessions. One thing that for me is very meaningful is when business and governments can come together and move some very important topics. I'm looking forward, for example, to the meeting again with the First Movers Coalition. This is a coalition now with more than 60 companies that, together with governments, have decided that they will use their purchasing power to green their supply chain. That means that Amazons, the Apples of the world will say that we will only buy, for example, aluminium from those that deliver aluminium 20% of it has to be green. Or they say that we will only buy fertilisers that is also produced by green energy, or they will use the same purchasing power when it comes to for example, air travel or how you transport goods on the sea. So, this is for me really at the core of what the Forum is so critical and doing is public-private cooperation and making sure that this can benefit the whole world.

Beatrice Di Caro: In May, Asia was underrepresented in Davos. What can we expect this time from Asia and from any other regions you'd like to mention?

Børge Brende: So Asia is going to be very well represented in Davos this year. We have all the key Japanese companies coming. We have the Korean president with a huge business delegation from Korea. We also will welcome a high-level delegation from China. A lot of Chinese businesses are coming. We also have key leaders from the Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. Many people say that this is Asia’s century. What I would say is that at least this is going to be a huge Asian footprint in Davos this year, including several Indian key cabinet ministers and a business delegation from India. That is very, very consequential.

Beatrice Di Caro: On a related but separate note, what are you most optimistic about for 2023?

Børge Brende: There are a lot of challenges this year. It is a very complicated geopolitical and geo-economic situation. The world order is a you could say, between orders. We don't know what is coming, but at the same time, we do see some cooperation again taking place. It was a major breakthrough when the US and China decided at the Bali G20 meeting to restart the cooperation on climate change. And I think there is hope that also with the lifting of COVID restrictions now in China, that we will see a more global growth coming at the end of this year and in 2024. But this also is very much depending on the possibility to then again start to trade and invest. So, I'm optimistic that Davos can play a positive role in bringing countries and companies together, realising that we only can achieve things if we collaborate and stick together.

Beatrice Di Caro: You mentioned the recession. How can countries be best prepared for that? How can countries grow this year?

Børge Brende: So we are expecting, unfortunately, that some countries will go into recession. What we hope is that the big economies will now pull things together and will not go into recessions and by that also carry the global economy forward. Because without growth, we will also see less prosperity, less jobs, and we have to avoid that we are moving into the 1970s again with low growth, high inflation and also high debt and after some time high unemployment.

Beatrice Di Caro: Looking forward in 2023 to COP28. What should countries and the world do to prepare for COP28? Are there any actions they should be prioritising?

Børge Brende: The COP28 is crucial. It is very important that we are prepared for the climate change that is coming by also adapting to it. Adaptation. It is also very important that we know are able to finance all the pledges made in Glasgow and also in Sharm el Sheikh to make sure that the developing countries and emerging economies are ready to invest in adaptation, but also in the necessary mitigation, because we have to reduce the amount of CO2 gases being emitted. So, the COP28 in the UAE, Abu Dhabi, will be critical on the financing side, but also on putting the new technologies to work for the environment. We will, in the coming five years, probably see a tripling of the amount of solar available. And solar will be more important than coal is today, and it's in many cases more affordable. So, the COP in the UAE, where we’re also signing an MOU in Davos when it comes to collaboration between the World Economic Forum and the UAE government, on the COP will be very important this COP to also unleash all the new technologies working for, then leapfrogging, breakthroughs that can also be very important when it comes to also CO2 mitigation.

Just let's face it, ten years ago, solar was ten times as expensive as today. Ten years ago, wind was seven times more expensive than today. So, by investing in these new technologies, we have seen major breakthroughs and the renewables are now in many ways even competitive when it comes to pricing. These breakthroughs have to continue if we're going to meet the net-zero target by 2050.

Beatrice Di Caro: What are three things that you'd say leaders need to do or integrate for 2023? How can leaders prepare for what's to come?

Børge Brende: Leaders have to secure more cooperation globally and also domestically. Leaders have to take real leadership when it comes to inclusion and climate change. And leaders also have to come together and continue to trade and invest in other countries, but also domestically. That's the only way to make sure that we revive growth and they are stuck.

Beatrice Di Caro: If I could add another question. If there's a story that you've read even in the last week or two that makes you hopeful for the year, if there's an idea or a story or a project that you saw, even on a personal level, that makes you hopeful.

Børge Brende: The challenge is now the geopolitical conflicts that we're seeing, and we're seeing a lot of people suffering. What I have seen is unfolding situation in Iran, where women's rights are under huge pressure. It's also important that we will have voices in Davos that will tell us about this situation and that hopefully we can see improvements and they are to come. We also know in the last weeks that the Taliban have decided that women cannot attend universities in Afghanistan. I hope that in Davos we can have a special focus on girls and women's rights in general, but also that every girl and every woman has the right to go to school and universities. We should not forget that many people are under and living under very dire situations in the world and I think it's important that in Davos we send messages of solidarity to the women in Iran, in Afghanistan and other places in the world that see that their basic rights are under threat.

Robin Pomeroy: Børge Brende the president of the World Economic Forum was talking to Beatrice di Cario, setting out the week ahead of us. We're only in day one, in fact today's agenda is relatively calm. It goes crazy from Tuesday onwards. There are hundreds of sessions. Really interesting. You can follow them all online, Linda. I mean, out of the smorgasbord that is AM23, is there anything you’d pick out?

Linda Lacina: Me personally, I am really looking forward to a session that the Climate and Nature Centre is putting together on the poles. There's one on unpacking the polar crisis and it's so interesting how people, indigenous people especially, who live at the poles, have gotten a firsthand look at what adaptation is really going to do to the planet and giving us a reality check on what we need to be preparing for when it comes to mitigation and adaptation.

Robin Pomeroy: Yes, and that reminds me, Linda, that we will be putting out the full audio of many of these sessions on our sister podcast called Agenda Dialogues. Some of them we will be putting out very quickly this week, others in the weeks following Davos, because you can watch all the sessions live and on catch up. But also, if you'd rather just listen to them as a podcast, you go to Agenda Dialogues and I'm sure that session will become an Agenda Dialogue.

Thanks, Linda, for joining me on Radio Davos. Every day on this podcast I'll be talking to colleagues at the World Economic Forum about issues, sessions and projects dear to their hearts. The first of these today is the head of Artificial Intelligence at the Forum. Kay Firth-Butterfield. Kay, how are you?

Kay Firth-Butterfield, Head of Artificial Intelligence, World Economic Forum: I'm great, thank you. And thank you for having me on.

Robin Pomeroy: Well, it's so lovely to see you again. Of course, you and I recorded one of our most popular episodes of Radio Davos a year ago now with Professor Stuart Russell on Artificial Intelligence. So, I'm always delighted to speak to you because you always have something fascinating to say.

Kay Firth-Butterfield: Thank you.

Robin Pomeroy: So, do look for that, listeners, if you've not already heard that one. I think I think I called it Rise of the Machines or something, which was a terrible title. I'm sorry. I apologise. But, Kay, today you're launching a report on something very interesting to do with artificial intelligence. What's that report?

Kay Firth-Butterfield: What we've been doing over the last year is creating an algorithm that can predict with an 80% precision recall when a wildfire will start. And so, at the moment, all the work out there with regard to wildfires is pinpointing a wild fire after it’s started. But this tool is actually allowing us to predict within a 24-hour window before the wildfire starts where it will start. That means we can get fire services or we can just get services there to actually stop the fire starting at all, because we know that fires are caused by brush and by various things in the forest and we can work out all of those things. And so, we might be able to just clear brush, stop wildfire or at least have the relevant services there before the wildfire starts. It's an incredible development.

Robin Pomeroy: It sounds almost science fiction. It's kind of Minority Report, you know, let's stop a crime before it's committed kind of thing. But can you give us it's probably extremely complex, but in a nutshell, can you say how it works?

Kay Firth-Butterfield: Yes. So, what the algorithm does is take in about 438 different pieces of data from various geographical sources, say satellite data, ground data from forests, weather conditions. Yes, all of those things and so then it runs the algorithm over that and produces the prediction. And we piloted it in Turkey this year, sorry, last year, 2022. And that's how we know the accuracy of it. You might say, well, why, what's the other percentage? What's missing here? The next stage of this is going to be how do we model humans who set fires? So, we as humans, accidentally and in some cases, for example, in California, deliberately set fires. And so, that's the next stage. So, at the moment it's that geographic climate data and the next stage is the human data.

Robin Pomeroy: We know that wildfires are becoming a bigger problem in many, many parts of the world, largely due to climate change and global warming. So, people listening to this thinking we had a wildfire near my home, wherever that might be in the world and think, great, when can we when will we see this technology rolled out near me? What would you say to that?

Kay Firth-Butterfield: Yes, certainly. So, you're absolutely right. At the moment, wildfires are a huge plague to the planet. Or in 2021, they emitted 1.76 billion tons of carbon. And of course, you know, there’s the huge damage to the environment, to property and sadly, loss of life. And so what we hope is that because the algorithm at the moment is set for the Mediterranean area, we will see it in the Mediterranean this summer, and we're already working with other geographies like Brazil, South Africa, California, Australia, to see whether when and whether we can bring it to those areas as well.

Robin Pomeroy: So, to read this report — give us the name of it, and people can find it on our website presumably.

Kay Firth-Butterfield: People can find it on our website and the project is called very easily FireAId, with the A I in capital letters.

Robin Pomeroy: I love it. Love that. Okay. Kay, always a pleasure to see you. I'm sure during 2023, we'll meet again and do more podcasts together. But for now, Kay Firth-Butterfield, head of Artificial Intelligence at the World Economic Forum. Thanks for joining us on Radio Davos.

Kay Firth-Butterfield: Thank you so much, Robin.

Robin Pomeroy: The metaverse is on everyone's lips. And later this week, I'll take you for a sneak peek at the World Economic Forum's own global collaboration village. That's a meeting place in the metaverse. Many people in Davos will be getting their own tour of this virtual world this week. I've already been on the tour and listeners to Radio Davos will get their own glimpse. But talking of the metaverse more widely. Later today, the World Economic Forum is releasing two special reports about the metaverse to talk to me about that. Joining me here now is Cathy Li. She's head of shaping the future of media, entertainment and sport at the World Economic Forum. Cathy, how are you?

Cathy Li, Head of Shaping the Future of Media, Entertainment & Sport at the Forum: Hi, Robin. How are you?

Robin Pomeroy: Great, thank you. We spoke a few weeks ago about everything to do with the metaverse. You run this initiative at the forum called Defining and Building the Metaverse. And as a result of that, there are two reports coming out today that people should be very interested in. And the first one is called Demystifying the Consumer Metaverse. What will be in that one?

Cathy Li: Demystifying the Consumer Metaverse is a insight report that will look at all of the core components, the foundational technologies, roles and paths to the economic value and growth in the consumer metaverse. And the second is a metaverse governance report focusing on interoperability. What are some of the pitfalls we need to be looking out for, and what are some of the benefits of the interoperability that we should look out for?

Robin Pomeroy: Yeah, when we spoke a few weeks ago. You had this metaphor about what we mean by interoperability.

Cathy Li: Absolutely. So, the definition of the interoperability, it is founded on the ability to for users to participate across environments and technologies, for data to circulate freely and securely, for systems to exchange information seamlessly. So, a very straightforward and easy to understand example is email, that we're using today. The fact that I can send a email to you from my Gmail account and you can receive it on your Yahoo account is a perfect illustration of how protocols and standards could be put in place and enable this type of interactions.

Robin Pomeroy: That’s the report coming out today about governance. When it comes to interoperability and I know you'll be working, you know, during this year on other parts of governance, getting in at the start of a kind of a nascent technology and bringing the stakeholders together. There's plenty of discussions about the metaverse here at Davos. So let's invite our listeners to follow those on the website weforum.org. Cathy Lee, thanks for joining us on Radio Davos.

Cathy Li: Thank you, Robin.

Robin Pomeroy: On Monday people are just arriving in Davos. Things will really get going tomorrow and the focal point of today inside the Congress Centre here will be the Crystal Awards and the opening concert to explain what the Crystal Awards is I'm going to read to you from the website. It's in its 29th year. The Crystal Awards honour exceptional artists and cultural leaders whose important contributions to society have made a tangible impact on improving the state of the world and who best represent the attitude of openness and cooperation is the spirit of Davos. The actor Idris Elba and his wife Sabrina, will receive the award, as will the artist Maya Lin and the singer Renee Fleming. You can watch the ceremony at 6 p.m. Central European Time, and immediately afterwards there'll be the opening concert, which is called I See You. It has the theme of protecting the ocean, particularly the coral reefs in the northern Red Sea. Later in the week, you can hear my interview with one of the performers, Jordanian singer Farah Siraj. And on this episode, I was visited here in the Radio Davos booth by renowned Oud player. If you don't know what an Oud is, stay tuned. The renowned Oud player Joseph Tawandros, and his percussionist brother James. I'm delighted to welcome to Radio Davos Joseph Tawadros and his brother James Tawadros. Welcome to Radio Davos.

Joseph Tawadros, musician: Thank you for having us.

Robin Pomeroy: It's delightful to see you here equipped with your instruments. Joseph, you are an Oud virtuoso. For anyone whp’s never heard of an Oud — what is it? I'm looking at it right now.

Joseph Tawadros: Well, it is basically the Arabic guitar. It's a middle Eastern guitar. It's a very important instrument in the Middle East. It's the choice of composers and singers. And so, it's something that's very historically significant over there and something a part of the culture, but it's also historically significant in the West because it's the ancestor of the guitar. So, this is a precursor to that. It was brought to Spain in the ninth century, spread around Europe, became the lute and then became the guitar. So, it's important in both sides of the world.

Robin Pomeroy: Well, I guess in Spain it became famous for the Spanish guitar as a little [inaudible].

Joseph Tawadros: In the ninth century it came to Spain through a player called Zeria. As legend has it, then it spread and became the lute. The word lute actually comes from Oud. The etymology — there it is, it's just staring you right in the face Robin.

Robin Pomeroy: All these years! This interview is worth it just for that. I'll be telling everyone that this evening. So, you were born in Egypt, you were telling me, but you grew up in Australia. So, tell us about the kind of music you play. You know, is it traditional? Some of this music must go back a millennium, you know, what is the kind of music you.

Joseph Tawadros: Yeah. I mean, James and I were brought up in a household which loved traditional music, and we listened to the old Arabic singers, like Umm Kulthum, one of the great divas of the Arab world, and Abdul Wahab, another great singer and composer. So, we were brought up on the classics of Egyptian music, mostly Egyptian music, and Arabic music and the Arabic scales. But because we were brought up in Australia, our ears were a little bit more open to the other sounds that were happening in the country. And the stuff that we play now is my original stuff inspired by, you know, the music that I've come across. But it is rooted in the Arabic music tradition and the Arabic scales and the modes which are called maqams. So that's where our music stems from. But it's about finding the similarities between the maqam system and the Western system.

Robin Pomeroy: Because Arabic scales actually have notes in a scale that you wouldn't find in the West.

Joseph Tawadros: Yeah, I mean, in a simplistic way, there are notes which you don't play in classical music, like if you look at a piano, for instance, some of the notes that are played in Middle Eastern music would be between the white and the black keys. So, they don't appear on settings or even the guitar because it has frets. Those middle things on the fingerboard, they cancel out quarter tones. The Oud is an open fingerboard, there isn't any frets. You're able to play quarter tones and scales with quarter tones, same as violins and cellos. It's an open fingerboard.

Robin Pomeroy: And tell us about your performance at the opening concert. What does that entail?

Joseph Tawadros: We're going to be playing some of my original music, so I'm very excited to be doing that. Being asked to perform with such a great orchestra, the Morphing Chamber Orchestra who have performed here before, and of course my brother James all the way from Australia. I didn't have to do so much — a long trek from London, but James came all the way from Sydney to take part in the concert and it's going to be an exciting and hopefully fresh sound for some of the people here that might may not expect this music to be here.

Robin Pomeroy: Yeah, I'm sure. James you're holding what to me looks like a tambourine. Is that a tambourine?

James Tawadros, musician: I guess simplistically, yes.

Robin Pomeroy: Everything I've said has been simplistic so far.

James Tawadros: There you go. Yeah. This is a middle Eastern instrument called the Riq. The Egyptians call it riq, different names across the Middle East, and essentially, it is tambourine. For those playing at home, it's a wooden, circular with jingles all around the edge. And I've got a plastic drum head on it but traditionally, it would have been a fish or a goat skin.

Robin Pomeroy: A fish skin.

James Tawadros: Yeah. So, when we say fish skin, think of a stingray.

Robin Pomeroy: Right. Okay.

James Tawadros: So technically, a fish, but not like a like a normal fish. A salmon.

Robin Pomeroy: So, you know, you're going to be playing to an audience of Davos, the World Economic Forum. I know it's not your usual crowd, is it? Are you going to approach it differently?

Joseph Tawadros: I mean, musicians tend to have nothing to do with economy or finances. So, it's quite the irony of it all. No, but I mean, I think it touches people on so many levels. And I think it's really important to actually have it in such a Forum, which doesn't seem to really have much of the arts. So, it's really quite a privilege to be playing here and hopefully reach some ears that weren’t ready for it and you know there's a lot of focusing on other things and we know that, but it's great that there is an artistic focus this year and a cultural focus and a nice, diverse programme for the attendees.

Robin Pomeroy: Can I cheekily ask you to play something for us?

Joseph Tawadros: Yeah, we can play a little one. This is a piece of mine called Give or Take, a bit of a show piece. I've got a little bit of speed happening on this one, so here's Give or Take.

[music plays]

A little short one for you, Robin.

Robin Pomeroy: I'm sure they're supposed to be even better at the concert. Great. Well, Joseph Tawadros, James Tawadros. Thanks so much for joining us. Thank you.

Follow all the action from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting 2023 at wef.ch/wef23, and across social media using the hashtag #wef23 and get all our podcasts at wef.ch/podcasts, or your podcast app of choice. This episode of Radio Davos was written presented by me, Robin Pomeroy. Editing was by Taz Keller, Studio Engineering was by Juan Toron. We'll be back tomorrow but for now thanks to you for listening and goodbye.