Oliver Cann, Director, Public engagement, Tel.: +41 79 799 3405; Email: Oliver.Cann@weforum.org
Dubai, United Arab Emirates, 10 November 2014 – The gravest threat to the future availability of natural resources comes not from their physical depletion but from above-ground risks and a lack of understanding of the drivers of resource scarcity. This is according to a new report, The Future Availability of Natural Resources: A New Paradigm for Global Resource Availability, released today by the Forum.
“A central reason for the world’s failure to effectively manage its water, food, energy and mineral resources is the existence of deep divides among stakeholders in this field, who tend to use similar data but distinct mental models to come to vastly different conclusions about tomorrow’s resource picture,” said Kristel Van der Elst, Senior Director and Head of Strategic Foresight at the Forum. Rather than sharing a common view on what causes resource scarcity, their mental models broadly fall into four polarized groups.
Adherents to the paradigm of “exhaustion and crash” argue that we are heading for dramatic shortages of key resources because growing demand is running into the natural boundaries that limit physical supply. Those concerned with “increasing costs” argue that while physical scarcity is unlikely, above-ground risks and rising complexity will lead to higher prices for end users. Advocates of “long-term abundance” claim that market efficiencies and technological innovations will always keep us one step ahead of scarcity in the long run. Those concerned primarily with “social injustice” argue that the main issue is not whether the world has sufficient resources on average; instead, we should be more concerned by the fact that marginalized populations are likely to experience critical shortages, possibly for extended periods of time.
If polarized views are a prime reason for the lack of effective resource management, “creating a shared understanding of future resource availability can be best achieved by overcoming common misperceptions of the drivers underpinning the issue,” noted Nicholas Davis, Director and Head of Europe at the Forum. The report is based on data analyses, interviews and workshops involving more than 300 global experts over three years. Five specific insights emerged:
Taking these lessons into account, it is possible to construct a holistic understanding of what we may expect to be the resource availability picture of 2035. This picture is one of a world that has sufficient stocks of most resources at a global level, but which nevertheless risks running into resource crises because of local shortages. It is also a world where unfortunate decisions are made due to the increasing pressures of environmental change.
To illustrate these ideas and challenge existing perspectives, the report presents three scenarios that illustrate the perils of failing to overcome our long-term blind spots:
When managing natural resources, we must assess the best available evidence and examine how different situations and responses might play out. This report is meant to help policy-makers and resource stewards transcend polarized discussions and perspectives, and take decisions that combine the latest knowledge and most innovative approaches in managing natural resources.
The Co-Chairs of the Summit on the Global Agenda 2014 are Sultan Bin Saeed Al Mansouri, Minister of Economy of the United Arab Emirates and Sami Dhaen Al Qamzi, Director-General, Department of Economic Development of the Government of Dubai.
Notes to Editors
The Host broadcaster for the Summit is Dubai Media Corp.
Everything about this year’s Summit: http://wef.ch/gac14
Download the Event App for Summit on the Global Agenda 2014 with GAC14 as password
View the best pictures of the Summit on Flickr at http://wef.ch/gac14pix
Follow the Forum on Twitter at http://wef.ch/twitter and key quotes from the Summit http://wef.ch/livetweet
Twitter users, please use the hashtag #globalagenda for all tweets about the event and #WEF about the Forum
Follow tweets from participants on our twitter list at https://twitter.com/wef/lists/gac-14
Live stream of sessions: http://wef.ch/live
Become a fan of the Forum on Facebook at http://wef.ch/facebook
Follow the Forum on Instagram at http://wef.ch/instagram
Follow the Forum on Google+ at http://wef.ch/gplus
Watch sessions on demand on YouTube at http://wef.ch/youtube
Read insights from our guest bloggers on the Forum:Blog at http://wef.ch/blog
Subscribe to our News releases: http://wef.ch/news