Most countries are making progress in the energy transition, with Northern European nations leading, and China and Brazil showing strong improvement.

Table 1: ETI 2024 ranking table

This year saw the highest global average scores in the history of the ETI, with modest improvements in system performance of about 0.2% and strong progress in transition readiness, with a growth of 2%. The top 10 ranked countries in the ETI are predominantly advanced economies, mainly from Northern Europe. They collectively contribute only 1% of energy-related CO2 emissions, 3% of total energy supply and represent 2% of the global population. Sweden leads the rankings, followed by Denmark and Finland. Norway, however, has seen a drop in its ETI rank for the first time in many years, due to increasing electricity prices and decline in renewable capacity buildout.

Notably, six G20 economies feature in the ETI top 20, including France, Germany, Brazil, China, the UK and the US. Over the past year, infrastructure and regulatory commitment have experienced the most significant growth, increasing by approximately 4%, while innovation, and finance and investments have declined by 1%.

Over the past decade, the list of top performers in the ETI has remained relatively unchanged; although countries such as China, Brazil and Chile have entered the top 20 performers owing to their energy transition efforts over several years. Despite each country adopting a unique energy transition pathway, they share common characteristics, including:

From 2015 to 2024, the global average scores for the ETI have consistently increased, driven by improvements in both system performance and transition readiness (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Global average Energy Transition Index and sub-index scores, 2015-2024

Major growing centres of demand, such as China, Brazil and India, have improved their ETI scores.

Out of 120 countries, 107 have shown progress over the past decade, with 30 countries seeing their scores increase by more than 10%. Notably, China and Brazil have progressed in recent years, primarily due to a ramp-up in renewable energy capacity additions and an overall increase in the share of clean energy. Both countries already rely on hydropower for a significant share of energy consumption and have committed to solar and wind capacity ramp-up. Different measures have come together in these countries over the years to create an enabling environment for the energy transition. Brazil’s long-term commitment to hydropower and biofuels,²⁷ combined with recent strides in solar energy, has set the country on the path to becoming a leader. Its focus on planning and policy instruments, as well as strengthening institutions, has built the right ecosystem for energy transition momentum.

Meanwhile, India has made strides in its clean energy infrastructure, with renewable energy and biomass comprising 42% of its power generation capacity,²⁸ making it the fourth-largest renewables market globally. With annual investments nearing $10 billion, India is driving the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and the production of green hydrogen.²⁹ However, the significant dependence on coal in both China and India continues to be a major factor in their
emission intensity.³⁰

Last year, 17% of countries, including notable examples like France, China, Poland, Belgium and India, showcased improvement across equity, security and sustainability, highlighting the difficulty in establishing a balanced transition.

In 2024, a notable 28% of nations, including Kuwait, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Mozambique and Tanzania, are actively transitioning towards a more balanced
energy system. This evolution is characterized by significant advancements in the lowest-scoring sub-index among equity, security and sustainability. Such progress indicates a strategic shift towards a more equitable, secure and sustainable energy landscape in these countries.

Meanwhile, improvements in ETI scores have slowed in Germany, Japan and the US over the past year.

In recent years, Germany has increased its coal-based energy production by 35% in 2022 compared to 2020,³¹ to compensate for reduced reliance on Russian gas, raising its carbon intensity. Germany also phased out nuclear energy in April 2023 with plans to replace it with solar and wind energy. While solar and wind energy
adoption has increased, most of the gap has been filled by coal.³² Japan has been significantly impacted by fluctuations in gas prices, leading to a drop in its equity scores due to challenges with energy affordability. Early success with clean hydrogen shows promising signs. The US has seen robust growth in ETI scores
over the past three years, with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)³³ playing a key role in providing the economic environment for renewable energy and EV adoption. However, the pace of the transition has decreased in the past year due to a backlog in connecting clean energy projects to the grid,³⁴ especially with large projects taking longer to connect. Additionally, while solar and wind are generally accepted by the public, local restrictions by homeowners driven by NIMBYism (not-in-my-backyard) pushed energy players to build assets in areas with strong potential for wind and solar while respecting the needs of local communities.³⁵

Among the new entrants in the top 20 are Latvia and Chile. Latvia has bolstered its sustainability performance with renewables contributing to approximately threequarters of its power generation, largely driven by hydropower and biofuels.³⁶ Additionally, Latvia has made strides in energy security by diversifying its import partners. Chile, on the other hand, has significantly improved its ETI score this year, with increased renewable energy capacity³⁷ leading to improved sustainability performance and reduced energy imports.

Despite these advancements, the global imperative to balance equity, sustainability and security remains paramount. Only 20 countries improved scores
across all three dimensions in the past year. The growing complexity of macroeconomic landscapes and escalating geopolitical tensions have introduced
additional challenges, underscoring the need for tailored pathways towards the energy transition to address these evolving dynamics effectively.

Figure 4: Regional scores and key insights: average scores by peer group – ETI 2024

ETI scores assess a country’s current energy system without accounting for the pace of its transition. The concept of transition momentum highlights the countries that are rapidly transitioning and those that face risks. While there is no globally
defined percentage to measure the progress of the energy transition, its pace depends on various factors, including the country and region-specific circumstances, the availability of resources and technology, the degree of political commitment and public support, and the overall urgency of addressing the climate crisis.

Although ETI scores reached their highest in 2024, transition momentum has slowed in the last three years.

ETI scores showed a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.22% in 2024 compared to 0.83% in 2021.

Figure 5: Energy Transition Index momentum, three-year CAGR percentage, 2015-2024

Recent macroeconomic conditions have significantly impacted the equity dimension of the energy transition. Inflation and high interest rates have compounded the challenge making it difficult for lower-income communities and developing nations to invest in sustainable energy solutions. These solutions often come with higher upfront costs, further exacerbated by the increased cost of borrowing. Additionally, energy prices have surged in recent years due to several factors: increased demand post-pandemic recovery, supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions affecting oil and gas supply, and underinvestment in traditional energy sectors amid the shift to clean energy sources. These issues have led to tighter energy markets and higher prices, hindering accessibility to affordable clean energy solutions and impeding progress towards an equitable energy transition.³⁸

Furthermore, energy supply disruptions have intensified pressure on energy security measures. In response, nations have prioritized immediate energy security concerns, often at the expense of a more equitable and sustainable transition.

Several countries have made notable progress in their energy transition journeys, each with tailored pathways to address their unique challenges and opportunities.

Among the major global economies, the countries with the strongest momentum include Australia, China, Indonesia, Brazil and Canada. Australia’s 2022 Climate Change Act enhanced the country’s political commitment to sustainable transition and has ramped up its security dimension by further reducing reliance on fuel imports.³⁹ China continues to be the major player in manufacturing clean energy technologies and has significantly ramped up its domestic renewable energy capacity, adding record-level solar photovoltaics (PV).⁴⁰ Indonesia enhanced energy access, especially in rural areas, reaching 98% access in 2023, compared to 93% in 2022. Canada’s 2021 Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) permit allowed the commercialization of several emerging technologies in some applications,
such as carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) and clean hydrogen.⁴¹

Lebanon, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Zimbabwe, and South Africa are the top five countries in energy transition momentum. While these countries have shown significant strides, there is still considerable room for improvement. Nevertheless, the success stories of these countries, which are in the lower quartile of the ETI ranking, provide valuable and specific lessons, especially for those nations that have, so far, experienced an unbalanced energy transition.

Additionally, moving the needle on a meaningful global energy transition requires that countries with lower ETI scores (yet showing considerable potential for progress) hasten their transition efforts. Common themes across the countries with the highest momentum scores include:

For example, in Lebanon, a significant reduction in fossil fuel subsidies catalysed a surge in distributed solar energy.⁴² Meanwhile, Ethiopia embarked on its
National Electrification Program in 2017, charting a course towards universal energy access by 2025, with a specific target of providing off-grid power solutions to 35% of its population.⁴³ Tanzania has emerged as a front-runner in Sub-Saharan Africa, with a rapid expansion of electricity, achieving a notable 37.7% increase in accessibility across both rural and urban areas from 2011 to 2020.⁴⁴
Zimbabwe witnessed a rise in renewable energy generation, primarily through hydropower, leading to improved energy access and substantial job growth in clean energy sectors.⁴⁵ Despite strides made in improving energy and carbon intensity, South Africa's energy sector still has significant room for further enhancement.⁴⁶

On the other hand, several countries have experienced a reversal in energy transition momentum over the past three years, notably, the UK, Italy, Turkey, Angola and Kuwait. The UK has been an early leader in the energy transition and continues to be a top performer; however, the energy crisis hit UK households particularly hard as the country is heavily reliant on natural gas, contributing 39% of its energy mix, had a decline in momentum due to energy affordability declining.⁴⁷ The UK increased its liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the US. However, a lack of diversity in energy imports also impacts the security dimension.⁴⁸ Similarly, Italy is heavily reliant on gas, and Turkey has seen a decline in the equity dimension due to surging electricity and gas prices, accompanied by a drop in transition readiness performance, particularly in regulation and investments. Angola’s momentum has stalled due to a reduction in
renewable energy investments. Additionally, Kuwait remains one of the most carbon-intensive economies globally, characterized by heavy reliance on fossil fuels and high energy intensity.⁴⁹

Regional breakdown of ETI momentum reveals a wide divergence in performance, with Sub-Saharan Africa showing the strongest improvement, while the Commonwealth of Independent States experiences the most significant decline.

Figure 6: ETI momentum vs score by region, 2024

Sub-Saharan Africa leads with the highest positive momentum, driven primarily by advancements in energy security and regulations. The region has diversified its imports and significantly improved grid reliability. However, there is still substantial room for improvement, especially on the equity and finance fronts to expand access to electricity and clean cooking and unlock more investments in the energy
system. Advanced economies follow, with smaller yet positive momentum, mainly due to notable improvements in sustainability, including a decade-long trend of steadily decreasing energy and carbon intensity. Emerging and developing Asian countries have experienced modest positive momentum, driven by enhanced transition readiness across political commitments and infrastructure.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, momentum has levelled off, with improvements in sustainability from increased renewable energy contributions partially offset by declining equity due to gas prices. For emerging and developing Europe, the improvements in energy security and sustainability, through diversification in energy imports and increased renewable energy, have been partially offset by a decline in affordability.

The Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan has shown negative momentum due to sustainability challenges. Despite the region’s high potential for solar energy and deployment in a few countries, it has the highest energy intensity and trails other regions in terms of integrating renewable energy into the energy mix. The Commonwealth of Independent States also shows negative momentum, with
increasing energy prices and subsidies.

System shocks will continue to test the resilience of the energy sector. One of the most important shocks in recent years was the COVID-19 pandemic. It is important to analyse the impact of a black swan event such as the COVID-19 pandemic to draw key learnings for future purposes. This examination provides
important lessons for bolstering preparedness, resilience and sustainability in anticipation of future shocks. The critical takeaways include:

The COVID-19 pandemic years witnessed substantial disruptions in global energy markets, with over 100 countries implementing lockdown measures by March 2020.⁵⁰ China, a major player in global clean energy technology manufacturing,
hosting over 80% of the world’s solar PV module manufacturing capacity and accounting for 58% of onshore wind turbine manufacturing,⁵¹ was the first
to initiate lockdowns. In recent years, some countries and regions have sought to localize critical parts of the manufacturing processes, as evidenced by the EU’s 2030 objective to produce at least 40% of key products domestically to decrease greenhouse gas emissions.⁵² Recent geopolitical events, including the Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East conflicts and others, further solidify the need for local resilience, both in clean and conventional sources.

COVID-19 lockdowns and remote work arrangements shifted residential energy demand and consumption patterns, altering peak demand times and overall energy use. Companies have swiftly adapted to changing energy consumption dynamics, exemplified by the proliferation of residential smart energy management solutions like smart thermostats and energy monitoring systems.⁵⁴ Moreover, heightened consumer awareness of electricity pricing throughout the day has spurred the adoption of time-of-use pricing plans from utilities suppliers. Additionally, energy-saving apps have become popular in places like the UK, where electricity prices particularly spiked. These developments enable consumers to adjust their use patterns and flatten the demand curve. As consumers increase the time spent working from home, countries with high energy intensity can adopt time-sensitive electricity pricing to drive down peak demand, which would reduce the total capacity needed.

Some governments were able to tackle immediate economic recovery needs with long-term sustainability ambitions through new policies and stimulus packages. Stimulus packages varied in their support for renewable energy. For example, the NextGenerationEU55 initiative, a €807 billion recovery plan responding to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, aimed to spur economic growth while accelerating the transition to a green and digital economy. Similarly, the IRA is the largest climate investment in US history, designed to mobilize private capital to achieve climate goals and strengthen long-term growth.⁵⁶

The COVID-19 pandemic also catalysed innovation in the energy sector, with accelerated adoption of digital technologies, smart grid solutions and energy storage systems. Utilities suppliers globally accelerated the deployment of advanced metering infrastructure and smart grid solutions to remotely monitor and manage energy distribution networks. The focus on resilience and sustainability also spurred innovation in renewable energy technologies, energy efficiency measures and decentralized energy systems. The COVID-19 pandemic also underscored the importance of energy security, emphasizing the need for reliable access to electricity and reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels, aligned with the COP28 outcome of transitioning away from fossil fuels.

While the COVID-19 pandemic presented an opportunity to translate the temporary emissions drop into longer-term progress, compounding impacts such as geopolitical tensions, “higher for longer” interest rates and other uncertainties have complicated the energy transition path. However, some effects are enduring, including the need to build resilient supply chains, enhance energy system flexibility and maintain commitment to decarbonization and energy efficiency.

Figure 7: Evolution of key indicators, pre-COVID-19 pandemic (2019) vs post-COVID-19 pandemic (2022)