Global Risks 2012: threats to the gains of globalisation

Drum roll, please…Some 469 experts have been polled on what risks the world’s leaders should have been addressing, 50 diagrams have been drawn, 20,000 words written, and the Global Risks 2012 report is now live. Its findings point to the threats looming on the horizon over the next 10 years, from crippling government debt burdens and climate change, to antibiotic-resistant bacteria and space debris. This year’s report reflects a shift in focus from environmental risks to social and economic ones, which is perhaps no surprise after a year marked by the extraordinary events unfolding from Libya to Wall Street to the EU.

You can watch a video of Lee Howell, World Economic Forum Managing Director in charge of Global Risks 2012, exploring the key findings above.

Overall, the picture that emerges from the survey is challenging, to say the least. Respondents worry that further economic shocks and social upheaval could roll back the gains of globalization, and feel that the world’s institutions are ill-equipped to cope with today’s interconnected, rapidly evolving risks. The findings of the survey fed into an analysis of three major risk cases:

1. Seeds of dystopia
Bulging populations of young people with few prospects, growing numbers of retirees depending on debt-saddled states and the expanding gap between rich and poor are all fuelling resentment worldwide. Collectively, these trends risk undoing the progress that globalization has brought.

2. Unsafe safeguards
Policies, norms and institutions from the 20th century may no longer protect us in a more complex and interdependent world. The weakness of existing safeguards is exposed by risks related to emerging technologies, financial interdependence, resource depletion and climate change, leaving society vulnerable.

3. The dark side of connectivity
Our daily lives are almost entirely dependent on connected online systems, making us susceptible to malicious individuals, institutions and nations that increasingly have the ability to unleash devastating cyberattacks remotely and anonymously.

The Report also highlights “X Factor” risks, the wild card threats which warrant more research, including a volcanic winter, cyberneotribalism and epigenetics, the risk that the way we live could have harmful, inheritable effects on our genes.

What do you think of the Global Risks 2012 findings? What are the risks that keep you awake at night, whether in your personal or professional life? We would welcome your feedback in the comment box below.

Throughout this week, we’ll be publishing video interviews with the key experts behind the report, as well as a series of posts exploring some far-fetched but plausible scenarios: What if there was a volcanic winter? What if antibiotics stopped working? What if there was no more space in space?

To find out more about the work of the World Economic Forum’s Risk Response Network, click here.