Liveblog: African Economic Outlook

of course, this is such a rich and complex topic that many critical themes were sure to go unmentioned. it was an incredibly lively discussion and i learned a whole lot– hope you’ve all enjoyed! -ian

so back to our elephant in the room for today’s summit:

china.

here’s a good example of how, for any discussion of african economic growth, china is omnipresent. this wef summit is a celebration of the 50th anniversary of the african union.

beijing paid for—and built—the african union’s new $200 million headquarters in addis ababa.

since we’re talking power output, nigeria is sorely lacking as well. nigeria has almost as many people as brazil– but produces just 5% as much electricity.

h/t economist–
http://www.economist.com/node/21562246

governor of bank of tanzania talking about needs, use of revenues of oil and gas.
this cuts to the quick of what his country lacks:
only 14% of tanzanians have access to power.

#WEF Borg: “There’s huge need for infrastructure connecting neighbours.Kenyan exports to Tanzania and Ethiopia should each be 10% of GDP.”

— Alec Hogg (@alechogg) May 10, 2013

put the health care insufficiency another way:
there are twice as many angolan doctors working in portugal as there are working in angola.

“nobody mentioned healthcare.” here’s another must when discussing economic growth potential.

“we can’t talk about the continent’s economic outlook without talking about the continent’s political landscape.” need i say i agree?

for those of you who wanted a more orthodox financial discussion today, here are some charts and figures to snack on.

bond data:

and here’s a good resource for all things private equity in africa:
http://www.africa-assets.com/news/private-equity-sub-saharan-africa-state-play-20122013

south african finance minister discussing a continent-wide approach. south africa has done its fair share on this front: in 2012, south africa invested in more projects in the rest of africa than any other country, mostly in service sectors like banking, telecom, and retail.

okonjo-iweala could not be more spot on about housing. in a country with a fertility rate of 5.38, they’ll need houses for the booming population.

here are a few ways of looking at it:
lagos is expected to be among the world’s 3 or 4 most populated cities by 2030. all by itself, greater lagos is already a compelling lower-middle income market of nearly 20 million, with effective local governance.

or on a country-wide level….

in a quarter-century, at the rate nigeria is growing, 300 million people — a population about as big as that of the present-day united states — will live in a country the size of… arizona and new mexico.

i’d like to hear more on the economic potential that can be unlocked through technology.

while rising rapidly, african internet use was at just 7% in 2011.
that’s a hindrance for broader growth– but it spells monster opportunities as the continent rapidly catches up. a space that unsaturated is well worth watching.

fdi shouldn’t be ignored in tanzania. carlyle group’s first sub-saharan africa fund made its inaugural investment in tanzania– $210m in an agriculture export company.

interesting point from tanzanian bank governor– biggest investor in tanzania from ’07-’09 was… kenya.

we’re talking botswana. here’s some trivia: president ian khama has not held a domestic press conference since coming to power in april 2008.

south african revenue service (SARS). an unfortunate acronym, that.

a telling nigeria statistic:

in nigeria, africa’s largest oil producer, services account for a larger share of gdp than oil exports.

okonjo-iweala discussing merit of foreign direct investment. here’s a handy chart:

savvy observation:

I am surprised that China is pretty absent from #WEFAFRICA. Do they not care about this discourse or do they prefer direct relations #WEF

— africatechie (@africatechie) May 10, 2013

“very rich country, botswana.”

yes, but despite economic success, life expectancy in botswana has dropped from 60.6 in 1980 to 53.0 in 2012, mostly due to the effects of hiv/aids (infection rate: 25% of population aged 15-49).

#WEF Pravin Gordhan: “Africa has a valuable opportunity of raising the quality of GDP growth founded on a new model based on inclusivity.”

— Alec Hogg (@alechogg) May 10, 2013

africa’s growth story over the first decade of 21st century certainly not an illusion. during that span, six of the world’s ten fastest-growing economies were found in sub-saharan africa. (h/t economist)

the first question: ‘is africa ready for a changed, improved and enhanced economic outlook?’

We’re accepting live questions for our upcoming #wefafricaoutlook session – remember to use the hashtag when sending in your responses.

— World Economic Forum (@davos) May 10, 2013

we should be underway shortly for the african economic outlook summit. we have a fantastic group of panelists, spanning south/east/west africa; conversation will likely touch on everything in between.