Liveblog: Breaking the Impasse

and that’s all from me for today. i’ve really appreciated the opportunity to liveblog sessions of the wef regional summit! it’s been very exciting…

thanks and i hope you’ve enjoyed!
-ian

some very inspiring words and candid accounts of the israel-palestine dynamic as it stands today– from all three of today’s major speakers. it was really wonderful to see them all on the same stage, and engaging in a dialogue together.

#kerry at #wef: economic approach not substitute for political approach. Pol app. Priority

— Gregory Khalil (@gregkhalil) May 26, 2013

kerry speaking of how the united arab emirates trumps the other regional players in terms of tourist arrivals… perhaps this says less about the inefficiencies/flaws in other countries’ strategies as it speaks to the uae’s success. plus, it is not as surprising in the context of the following: the united arab emirates is a country where the foreign population makes up 90% of the total.

kerry very much striving to ground his speech in the credible, “shovel ready” facets of the initiative we’re discussing today. certainly a winning strategy amidst criticism that such speeches may just be rhetoric. kerry: “is this a fantasy? i don’t think so. because there are already great examples of investment and entrepreneurship that are working in the west bank.”

kerry: “goals that are more transformative than incremental.”

“countries like libya, egypt, and tunisia…need to aggressively reemerge into the global economic community.” these north african states are increasingly being propped up by an unlikely benefactor– qatar.

qatar’s desire to ignore traditional powers in the region and to pursue a soft diplomacy approach in the wake of the arab spring, as well as its longtime ties to pro-muslim brotherhood figures, have made it easier to economically assist the struggling north african region. and most critically, they have the cash to spend–with few direct economic and political strings–at a time when few others (even the imf) are prepared to make strong commitments. all of which is turning qatar from a marginal gas state to one of the geopolitical powerhouses in the region. that’s most clear in egypt–under hosni mubarak, egypt’s relations with qatar experienced decades of acrimony; today doha has become the new egyptian muslim brotherhood-led government’s closest ally. that’s nearly as true in tunisia. across north africa, qatar’s investments are less about earning a good return, then expanding and developing its relations with prospective allies beyond the gulf cooperation council…

kerry: “we are staring down a dangerous path, with a capacity to harden divisions, increase instability…. as most here are very aware, this will be a path that will be haunted by violent extremists…”

kerry is referring to the ‘arab spring’ repeatedly as the ‘arab awakening’

kerry: ‘it’s a great pleasure to be in this remarkable country of jordan.’

so a strong speech from abbas, but the aforementioned constituency/legitimacy issues regarding hamas must be acknowledged.

similar appraisal for peres’ speech– lofty, emotional, and hopeful– but we cannot ignore the political architecture back in israel: netanyahu presides over a government that has been shifting decidedly to the right for more than a decade, with a growing marginalization of left-wing parties, and a public disenchantment with the peace process. the center-right leadership is increasingly uncompromising.

peres to kerry: “i know that all sides can count on your determination.”

undoubtedly so- – kerry is highly capable, and the middle east is an area of particular focus/expertise for him. but if kerry’s determination was actually a key determinant in israel-palestine peace negotiations, i’d be a lot more optimistic. the key drivers here do not come from the united states.

peres: “president abbas– you are our partner and we are yours.”

“we can and should make the breakthrough.”

“history will judge us not by process but by outcomes.”

there is an unspoken wrinkle here that makes abbas’ calls for peace more difficult. his fatah party isn’t viewed as the sole credible leadership in palestine by many palestinians. hamas’ popularity is growing, particularly among younger palestinians– a demographic momentum that will drive the two sides farther apart over time. abbas/fatah cannot speak for palestine entire at a summit such as this– and hamas has every incentive to undermine any possible deal that would come out of a diplomatic process from which it’s excluded.

“When we talk of refugees…we hear that we dont wanna discuss this issue…that it needs to be removed from negotiating table” – Abbas #WEF

— Ahmed Shihab-Eldin (@ASE) May 26, 2013

“the status quo is unsustainable and dangerous.”
i believe the status quo is one of those two things. it seems to find sustenance through every iteration of the israel-palestine conflict.

a lot of discussion of the long, painful history of the israel-palestine conflict. here are some maps that show changes over time:

(h/t http://www.newstatesman.com/2012/07/chart-day-land-and-freedom)

“this is not a normal day in the israel-palestine conflict”

“jordan….the most hospitable of countries”
nearly 500,000 syrians certainly appreciate jordan’s hospitality.

vardi is delivering a thank you to the wef for its role in ‘breaking the impasse’ progress– much deserved appreciation.

Breaking the Impasse session no normal end to a #wef meeting #mena13

— Rod Cartwright (@RodCartwright) May 26, 2013

klaus schwab opening our final panel– “devoted mainly to the israeli-palestinian conflict.”
“a call for action…prepared over the last 15 months.”

the wef has been driving some impressive headlines here in jordan. here is israel/palestine business leaders pushing for peace:
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/special-reports/world-economic-forum/2013/05/26/Arab-Israeli-business-leaders-unite-to-lobby-for-peace.html

In #Gaza‘s 693 schools for 468,653 students #Hamas has mandated gender segregation after age 9. theatlantic.com/international/… #Takhaluf #Backwards

— Ahmed Shihab-Eldin (@ASE) May 26, 2013

The presence of Israeli media here is CRAZY. #wef

— Wafa Ben Hassine (@ousfourita) May 26, 2013

looks like we may have a surprise guest:

#WEF Tony Blair has just arrived! A role to play towards much needed peace. Peace = investment = Education = Peace twitter.com/RahmanSobia/st…

— Sobia Rahman (@RahmanSobia) May 26, 2013

i love the paradox of this wef summit: “live from dead sea, jordan.”

qatar was hardly mentioned in the syria summit that i liveblogged earlier. given its meager population– just under 2m people– perhaps it’s understandable that it doesn’t receive outsized attention… after all, there are at least 50 chinese cities with larger populations than the entire country. but the rising role of qatar as a regional powerbroker is extremely interesting to me. the gulf cooperation council is expanding, but qatar is much more willing to go it alone, and they’ve got the cash to back it up.

qatar’s al jazeera broadcasting station is also used as a foreign policy instrument throughout the region.
top 5 mena markets by al jazeera penetration:
kuwait 69%
iran 60%
lebanon 59%
oman 59%
libya 55%

China doesn’t so much have a foreign policy as a resource acquisition policy – @robertdkaplan #WEF #wefenergy #MENA13

— World Economic Forum (@wef) May 26, 2013

here is the wef’s shout out for my last liveblog session, earlier this morning, on syria:

In Aleppo, student attendance has dropped to 6%: read @ianbremmer‘s live blog for more key facts on Syrian conflict #wefsyria #WEF #mena13

— World Economic Forum (@wef) May 26, 2013

you can read it here:
https://agenda.weforum.org/2013/05/liveblog-safeguarding-syria/