Liveblog: Safeguarding Syria

here are some indicators that put the scale of the syrian conflict into broader context:

(h/t economist)

discussion, “widely held fear– united nations aid co-opted by the regime?”

here is a disturbing statistic. syria’s health expenditure was just 3.4% of gdp, among the lowest in the world…. before the violence erupted (2010).

conversation has tilted to how israel should not intervene.

i feel the panel is looking at israeli involvement from the wrong perspective entirely.
israel’s involvement– strikes on hezbollah military equipment within syrian borders, etc– strikes me as more of a message to iran than to syria. it’s a statement that israeli red lines are firm and israel won’t hesitate to commit military strikes should iran overstep. israel utilizing the power vacuum in syria and the knowledge that assad has his hands full to underscore their red lines without much chance of retaliation.

“the devil we know/ devil we don’t” just used for the third time. hat trick.

The balance of power is not there in #Syria to start discussing a political solution between both parts .. #wefsyria

— Baraa Shiban (@BShtwtr) May 26, 2013

it seems to me there are a half a dozen players that necessarily need to be included in any discussion on intervention– perhaps more prominently than the united states: turkey, israel, qatar, russia, saudi arabia, Iran…

a sound appraisal of united states’ hesitance to intervene. obama did not build his foreign policy legacy around withdrawal from afghanistan and iraq only to slip into a new war.

“a political solution at this stage does not lie in a regime/opposition dialogue… the regime is not going to operate in good faith.”
we need “a new equation for sharing power.”

my opinion: it’s hard to build a workable equation when assad believes he should be the only variable in syrian power politics… and he is consolidating military gains. the regime has recently achieved significant military successes that will allow it to more seamlessly secure its supply lines along the strategic damascus-homs-aleppo highway. bottom line: the military has become a more agile and coherent force.

“why the shortfall? why so hard to rally help to this cause?”

it really goes back to g-zero. there is no actor outside syria for whom the costs of ongoing war can drive sufficient investment in fixing the situation– there is not a coalition of the willing and able. there are also powerful actors on either side of the conflict– a growing power vacuum…and proxy war.

conversation has turned to foreign fighters in syria– iraq, lebanon, etc– here is a useful who’s who of the rebel opposition:

(h/t economist)

“rather the devil you know than the devil you don’t” expression used to describe assad/opposition dynamic within first 15min of summit. as expected…

discussion has turned to atrocities documented on both sides of the syrian war.

“our youth, if they were here, would say, priority for self-determination, democracy, cannot hide the decision of the people of syria to change.”
to those who say stop the fight, “the people of syria say ‘no way’ back.”

“at current rate, we’ll be at 3m refugees by the end of the year.”

here is a good visual depicting the refugee movement:

“we come to this panel with a heavy heart and a heavy sense of humility.”

“failures of the global system to stop syria’s slide.”

i call that failure the ‘g-zero’– a lack of global leadership where no country or group of countries can drive the international agenda.

today, syria has unfortunately become the poster child of the g-zero.

the wef with a must-see list of the top ten quotes out of the jordan summit thus far:

Catch up on day 2 of our #MENA13 session in Jordan with these top ten quotes from the day: agenda.weforum.org/2013/05/top-10…

— World Economic Forum (@davos) May 26, 2013

i’m excited to be liveblogging the syria summit, starting soonish– certainly the largest looming question mark in the region today..