Competitiveness World Cup: the results
Overall, the World Economic Forum’s World Cup competitiveness head-to-heads correctly predicted the results of 34 out of 64 games played at this year’s tournament (53.1% accuracy). What hurt the precision of the predictions in the later stages were the relatively low scores of both Brazil and Argentina, two tournament favourites who progressed to the semi-finals and final respectively, and the relatively high scores of the European countries, especially Belgium.
However, the competitiveness scores did correctly predict some of the more unlikely results of the tournament, including Spain’s heavy loss to the Netherlands in the group stages and Germany’s rout of Brazil in the semi-final. And, most importantly, the scores pre-empted Germany’s ultimate victory in the final.
Though they may have been only slightly better than a coin toss as a forecasting tool, we hope they added something to your experience of the World Cup.
The full results can be found below:
Group stages
Group A
Qualified: Brazil; Mexico
Predicted: Croatia; Brazil
Group B
Qualified: Netherlands; Chile
Predicted: Netherlands; Australia
Group C
Qualified: Colombia; Greece
Predicted: Japan; Colombia
Group D
Qualified: Costa Rica; Uruguay
Predicted: England; Costa Rica
Group E
Qualified: France; Switzerland
Predicted: Switzerland; France
Group F
Qualified: Argentina; Nigeria
Predicted: Bosnia and Herzegovina; Argentina
Group G
Qualified: Germany; USA
Predicted: Germany; USA
Group H
Qualified: Belgium; Algeria
Predicted: Belgium; Korea Republic
Accuracy: 52.1%
Most accurate: Group E; Group G (67% correct)
Least accurate: Group D (33% correct)
Knockout stage
Last 16
Qualified: Brazil; Colombia; France; Germany; Netherlands; Costa Rica; Argentina; Belgium
Predicted: Chile; Colombia; France; Germany; Netherlands; Costa Rica; Switzerland; USA
Accuracy: 62.5%
Quarter finals
Brazil v Colombia
Prediction: 1-2 Result: 2-1
France v Germany
Prediction: 0-4 Result: 0-1
Netherlands v Costa Rica
Prediction: 4-0 Result: 0-0 (4-3 on penalties)
Argentina v Belgium
Prediction: 0-4 Result: 1-0
Qualified: Brazil; Germany; Netherlands; Argentina
Predicted: Colombia; Germany; Netherlands; Belgium
Accuracy: 50%
Semi-finals
Brazil v Germany
Prediction: Result: 1-7
Netherlands v Argentina
Prediction: Result: 0-0 (2-4 on penalties)
Qualified: Germany; Argentina
Predicted: Germany; Netherlands
Accuracy: 50%
Third place play-off
Brazil v Netherlands
Prediction: 0-4 Result: 0-3
Final
Germany v Argentina
Prediction: 4-0 Result: 1-0
Winner: Germany
Predicted: Germany
Tournament accuracy: 53.1%
Author: Tomas Hirst is commissioning editor, digital content, at the World Economic Forum
Image: Germany players celebrate with their trophy after winning the 2014 World Cup final between Germany and Argentina at the Maracana stadium in Rio de Janeiro July 13, 2014. REUTERS/Darren Staples
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