Are we entering a new era in space innovation?

Many of us born in the space era grew up with high expectations of what the future would hold. We were sure in the knowledge that when we were older we would be living in a moon colony, planning journeys to distant planets and beyond.

The reality has been somewhat less than we expected. As far as human space flight is concerned, we seem to be stuck in a hiatus. It seems strange, as other areas of space science have gone from strength to strength.  Look at satellite communication and navigation, earth observation and astronomical space missions. The latter has transformed our knowledge of the universe. So, why so little progress in getting us out there?

In recent years, there has been a change in the air. Hope has been rekindled – in the form of commercialization. My theory is this: in the 60-odd years since Sputnik left the planet we have had three phases of space. The first phase was confrontation, the second collaboration and the third commercialization, which is the phase we have recently entered.

It is quite easy to forget, but confrontation is really what got the space era started. From the Romans to present day, war is a great incubator for technology – and World War 2 was no exception. V2 rockets were developed to cause devastation from afar with minimum engagement. After WW2 we slipped into the Cold War, where designing rockets that could travel across the planet was the goal and skirting space seemed to be the answer. But once we made that journey, people realized that we could get more out of space. From a satellite’s lofty heights, secret surveillance of the enemy is easy.

The prohibitive cost of space drove the development of the next phase of space: collaboration. In the late 1960s and early 70s many countries started to form their own space agencies. They could see the benefits of having a presence up there, but with an average satellite costing a few $100 million and launches much the same, many countries could see the benefit of working together. This continues today, through projects such as the International Space Station and the James Webb Space Telescope.

I have spent most of my career as a space scientist in the collaborative era, and although I love being part of really big international teams, it does feel as if progress is slow. Everything is decided by committee and the really exciting projects, such as getting a person to Mars, never get off the ground due to a lack of consensus and funds. Compare this with the scientific environment that got the first guys to the moon.

Commercialization is the magic dust that makes blue-sky thinking seem commonplace in mere years. We have all seen it happen. Mobile phones of the 1980s, that cost the earth and needed a small trailer to carry around, evolved into the sleek little numbers we have in our pockets today. From 1970s computers that filled three offices to the ultralight notebook I am writing this on – commercialization has the power to transform.

But crucial to that transformative power are market forces. If there is enough demand and we are willing to pay, then, just like with the phones and the computers, the market will comply. Like war, consumer culture is a great developer of technology, making things smaller, lighter and cheaper.

In terms of space, this change is happening now, and it is not just the likes of Virgin Galactic or Mars One I speak of, but companies such as SpaceX that now supply the International Space Station; or like Reaction Engine, which has designed a new reusable spacecraft that uses oxygen from the earth’s atmosphere as part of its fuel. The major developments are in plasma propulsion engines, which reduce the journey time to Mars from five months to one month. We are truly living in exciting times.

For the naysayers out there who think I have a rose-tinted vision of space, I say this. When the Wright brothers made their first flight, no one could have anticipated the existence of low-cost airlines. So, welcome to the new space era; soon our childhood dreams may be fulfilled.

Explore the World Economic Forum’s network of Global Agenda Councils. 

Author: Maggie Aderin-Pocock is a British space scientist, presenter of TV programme The Sky at Night and a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Space.

Image: Astronaut Mike Hopkins as he participates in the second of two spacewalks which took place on December 24, 2013. REUTERS/NASA