Economic Growth

10 trends for the future of China’s economy

Next week 1,600 participants from over 90 countries will converge on Tianjin, China, for our Annual Meeting of the New Champions. You can follow highlights live online, from 10-12 September. Here are our speed reads to help you navigate the key trends reshaping China’s economy.

Can China innovate? The theme of the meeting is Creating Value through Innovation, as China attempts to move its powerful industrial base up the global value chain. Some traditionally pessimistic views are being challenged by more optimistic reporting on the ground. But globally, there seems little doubt that innovation is heading east.

China’s future. An essay in The Economist paints a very English view of China’s rise, and the accompanying foreign policy and economic challenges. Despite the hurdles China, it concludes, “stands on the verge of greatness.”

Controlling China’s growth. Parts of its economy are still growing through a borrowing-backed investment boom. Peking University finance professor Michael Pettis argues that building social capital alongside slower, more sustainable growth is the country’s next challenge. In this post, he looks at how it might make that readjustment. Meanwhile state capitalism is not delivering: “the return on assets of state firms is plummeting. It was around 3.7% in 2013…less than half the cost of capital.”

How do Chinese companies go global? Read our report Emerging best practices of Chinese globalizers.

China’s anti-corruption campaign can help build social capital. But what exactly does it mean for the economy and the future? What is the political price? And is President Xi’s reform strategy becoming clearer?

Would a slowdown in China hit global growth? If policy-makers do apply the brakes the insulation of China’s domestic finance system should protect the world economy, (cf. Japan in the 1990s), but resource-rich economies could be hit hard.

China’s energy transition can help deliver a cleaner, greener economy. How will it affect global climate and sustainable development? But fossil fuel demands still need to be met, and China is continuing its energy-driven expansion into the Middle East and East Africa.

What can China’s cities do to cope with millions more inhabitants? The “Champion City Strategy” may hold some of the answers. It’s detailed in our report The Future of Urban Development.

How has China financed its development? China’s Superbank looks at China Development Bank, and the role of “local government financing vehicles” in funding domestic infrastructure.

Eyes east. China, not the US, is the audience Hollywood wants, but big audiences don’t always make for big profits at the box office. A Chinese company already owns America’s biggest movie theatre chain. Now it is buying into Beverly Hills. And how long before a Chinese Sherlock Holmes?

Image: A view of Tianjin taken from Tianjin World Financial Center. REUTERS/China Daily

 

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