How 2014 shook global order
Which emerging threat is the world missing right now? After a truly horrendous year for international peace and security, this question will be even more important for the leaders, analysts, and media gathering this week at the 51st Munich Security Conference (MSC).
A year ago, the war in Syria and the crisis in Ukraine were the international community’s preoccupying challenges. But many of the participants in last year’s MSC would likely now admit that they did not appreciate the true gravity of these events – let alone what might come next.
Fears that the United States is abandoning its global leadership role are certainly exaggerated. But, at the very least, President Barack Obama’s declared focus on “nation-building at home” has created a perception of retreat that worries many allies.
In Europe, meanwhile, many countries are still trying to overcome the impact of the financial and economic crisis of 2008, as well as domestic policy paralysis and rising Euroskepticism. Europe’s global role, for all its potential, will not be spelled out in a meaningful way anytime soon.
Of course, not all breakdowns in order can be attributed to domestic politics, economic considerations, or shifting great power relations. The number of relevant actors and potential spoilers on the world stage has skyrocketed, further weakening governments’ ability to resolve problems on their own or in coordination with one another.
But collapsing orders are both a cause and an effect of their traditional and potential guardians’ increasing reluctance. As leaders stop acting the way they used to, or fail to do as much as a situation might warrant, other actors test the limits.
As orders crumble and become harder to maintain or manage, traditional and potential leaders increasingly consider the challenge too great, or they rely heavily on quick fixes and stop-gap measures, further fueling unpredictability and instability. It was at this intersection of test and trepidation that today’s vicious circle of geopolitical turmoil was set in motion.
Against this backdrop, there is no reason to believe that predicting major crises, let alone containing them, will become any easier. Growing global complexity intensifies the problem. Overwhelmed by a surfeit of information, governments and key international institutions find themselves overlooking or misjudging the signals amid the noise. And it is becoming much more difficult for leaders to focus on a few critical items, which would likely increase the quality of their decision-making.
Many old assumptions died in 2014. At this year’s MSC, the world will have an opportunity to consider what should replace them.
This article is published in collaboration with Project Syndicate. Publication does not imply endorsement of views by the World Economic Forum.
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Author: Wolfgang Ischinger is Chairman of the Munich Security Conference and Global Head of Governmental Relations at Allianz SE. Adrian Oroz is Senior Adviser for Policy and Analysis at the Munich Security Conference.
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