Are we underestimating extreme poverty?

Global estimates of how many people live in extreme poverty could be short by 350 million because of a dearth of reliable data, potentially leading to poor decisions about who needs services, researchers said.

The official figure of 1.2 billion people living on less than $1.25 a day is based on educated guesswork rather than hard facts, researchers at the London-based think tank Overseas Development Institute (ODI) said.

The lack of reliable data means policy makers are often working in the dark, making major spending decisions – like building new hospitals – without hard facts to base them on.

“Even the most willing governments cannot efficiently deliver services if they do not know who those people are, where they live and what they need,” said Elizabeth Stuart, lead author of the report “Data revolution: finding the missing millions” which will be published next week.

“Nor do they know where their resources will have the greatest impact,” she added.

As many as 350 million people worldwide are not covered by household surveys, Stuart said. Some live in slums, or conflict zones and areas which are hard to reach, and some are left out of surveys by design. These include mobile or nomadic peoples, those in institutions, and the homeless.

Some countries have not carried out a household survey in decades. Democratic Republic of Congo is relying on survey data collected 35 years ago, Stuart said. Myanmar has just carried out its first census in 30 years.

Even countries that carry out more frequent surveys may not make the data easily available.

Often researchers – especially those outside government departments – have to have the right contacts within national statistics departments to get information, and sometimes they will be charged for it, Stuart said.

“Governments do not adequately know their people. This is particularly true for the poorest and most marginalised, the very people that leaders will need to focus on if they are to achieve zero extreme poverty in the next 15 years,” the report says.

Eradicating extreme poverty by 2030 is one of 17 Sustainable Development Goals currently being set by the international community.

Governments need to reach the poorest and most vulnerable with basic services like education and healthcare if they are going to achieve this, Stuart said.

“It’s fantastic that the world is setting this new set of very ambitious … targets, but if you don’t know whether you’ve met them or not, you could say it’s an exercise in the dark again and it’s not worth doing,” Stuart said.

“It’s important to realise that data isn’t just about measuring things, it’s about getting stuff done,” she added.

This article is published in collaboration with The Thomson Reuters Foundation trust.org. Publication does not imply endorsement of views by the World Economic Forum.

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Author: Alex Whiting joined the Thomson Reuters Foundation’s editorial team in July 2005, focusing on conflicts and humanitarian crises, women’s rights and corruption.

Image: A drought-related cactus installation called “Desert of Cantareira” by Brazilian artist and activist Mundano is seen at Atibainha dam. REUTERS/Nacho Doce.