Q&A: Where next for the Middle East?

Resilience, not growth, is the name of the game for the region’s economy. Mohamad Al-Ississ, Associate Dean at the American University in Cairo, talks about the need to educate young people and give them a route out of instability and unemployment    

Are we any nearer to solving the region’s youth unemployment crisis?

Youth unemployment in the Arab world is not a business-cycle issue, it is a structural problem that requires comprehensive reform, starting with the education system, which currently is not fit for this age. Doing this will require reversing the pay scale to attract high-calibre educators, and building curricula around the core values of entrepreneurship and citizenship, rather than patriarchy, obedience and the strong collaboration of the private sector.

Currently, the masses of young graduates dream of a government job, but governments can no longer meet their end of the post-colonial social contract. A private sector that is formalized, financed and protected against anti-competitive practices can grow and absorb the young graduates. These are all long-term, complicated reforms that sadly many Arab governments are not focusing on as they search for quick placebo solutions to appease the masses.

Economic reform is key to driving development in the MENA region: who is doing this right?

The region is currently facing two core complicated crises. The first is security breakdown and implosion of the modern state due to lack of institutional legitimacy. The second is the shallowness of its development reforms. Few are making achievements here. On the first front, Tunisia is the only credible candidate. As for reforming the development agenda, Jordan and United Arab Emirates come to mind, mainly due to their commitments to human capital development.

Which one innovation in the region has impressed you most in the past 12 months?

Edraak, the Arab massive open online course platform developed by Queen Rania foundation. The portal is set up in cooperation with Harvard and MIT’s Edx platform endogenously in Arabic using leading Arab scholars. Through harnessing the power of technology, it delivers high-quality higher education in Arabic to learners across the world. In its first year of operation, over a million educational videos were viewed. It is a smart, low-cost investment that makes a large impact on one of the most binding constraints facing the region: education. I’m proud to have supported its establishment and taught its first course on a pro bono basis.

What is our economic outlook for MENA in 2016?

The state of uncertainty will remain the name of the game in 2016. Massive immediate challenges face the Arab world: security and collapse of the state, low and sustained oil prices and unemployment. While business will grow cautiously in stable states, resilience (not growth) is the name of the game in the short term.

If you could help your council achieve one thing in its two-year term, what would it be?

Establish actionable, innovative and non-threatening models for parallel education. The region is the youngest in the world, with three-quarters of its population below the age of 30. In the midst of the current instability, it’s easy and understandable not to prioritize education. This, however, would be a grave mistake that jeopardizes the future of the Arab world. This is where our council can play a constructive role to support overwhelmed leaders, overstretched states and their overcommitted resources.

Mohamad Al-Ississ is participating at the Summit on the Global Agenda 2015

Author: Mohamad Al-Ississ is an Associate Dean at the School of Global Affairs and Public Policy and Assistant Professor in the School of Business at the American University in Cairo. He is also an economics lecturer at the Harvard Kennedy School. Member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Middle East and North Africa.

Image: A boy carries water past electoral banners in Cairo November 27, 2011. REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh