Will the world be malaria-free by 2040?

The world could be free of malaria by 2040, according to a paper published by the UN and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A century ago, malaria existed almost everywhere in the world. The United States and Britain eliminated the disease in the early 1950s, and most other Western countries were malaria-free by 1970.

Currently 107 countries are free from malaria and another 28 are in the elimination stage, meaning they have less than one diagnosed case per 1,000 people per year.

This map shows when malaria is expected to be a thing of the past in each of the countries still affected by the disease. The data is from targets tracked by the Malaria Elimination Initiative (MEI) at the University of California, San Francisco Global Health Group.

Much of the world is expected to become malaria free in the next decade, including most of South America and Asia. South Africa and Botswana are on target to eradicate the disease by 2018, followed by China and Malaysia in 2020.

It is expected that elimination will progress unevenly through regions and within countries, with eradication taking until 2040 in some African nations. The differences in expected elimination dates are due to factors such as weather, mosquito vector populations, the movement of people and capability of healthcare systems, as well as the problems of effective eradication in areas of armed conflict.

Freeing the world from malaria depends on increasing investment in measures to reduce the rate of infection. These include traditional methods of tackling the disease, such as bed nets treated with insecticide, monitoring and quick diagnosis and treatment, as well as new measures such as drug research, vaccines and insecticides.

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Publication does not imply endorsement of views by the World Economic Forum.

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Author: Emma Luxton is a Digital Content Producer at Formative Content.

Image: Malaria tests are seen on a table. REUTERS/Astrid Zweynert.