Economic Growth

Is there an optimum temperature for the global economy?

Emma Luxton
Senior Writer , Forum Agenda

Climate change will hit the global economy by pushing many nations above the optimal temperature for economic activity, according to a paper published by Nature.

The study looks at the relationship between temperature and economic output in 166 countries over 50 years. It suggests that climate change will widen inequality because global warming is more harmful to hot countries, which tend to be poorer, and has a smaller positive impact on cold countries, which tend to be richer.

151203-global economy 2100 climate temperature map

Source:  Burke, Hsiang, & Miguel (Nature, 2015)

The analysis identifies an optimal temperature band centred on 13°C, calculates that global warming will push many economies, including China and the US, above this level, and forecasts a 23% cut in global economic output by 2100 compared to a world with stable temperatures. Meanwhile, the average income in the poorest 40 countries is predicted to fall by 75%.

The analysis focuses solely on the impact of temperature change and doesn’t take into consideration extreme weather events and rising sea levels.

Have you also read?
15 quotes on climate change by world leaders
Open letter from CEOs on climate change
5 reasons why climate change may be worse than we think

Publication does not imply endorsement of views by the World Economic Forum.

To keep up with the Agenda subscribe to our weekly newsletter.

Author: Emma Luxton is a Digital Content Producer at Formative Content.

Image: A ship travels north on the Hudson river past the Manhattan borough of New York City. REUTERS/Mike Segar.

Don't miss any update on this topic

Create a free account and access your personalized content collection with our latest publications and analyses.

Sign up for free

License and Republishing

World Economic Forum articles may be republished in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Public License, and in accordance with our Terms of Use.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.

Stay up to date:

Economic Progress

Related topics:
Economic GrowthClimate Action
Share:
The Big Picture
Explore and monitor how Climate Crisis is affecting economies, industries and global issues
A hand holding a looking glass by a lake
Crowdsource Innovation
Get involved with our crowdsourced digital platform to deliver impact at scale
World Economic Forum logo
Global Agenda

The Agenda Weekly

A weekly update of the most important issues driving the global agenda

Subscribe today

You can unsubscribe at any time using the link in our emails. For more details, review our privacy policy.

Sustainable trade could be an opportunity for Indonesia. Here’s how

Kimberley Botwright

November 4, 2024

Global public debt to exceed $100 trillion, says IMF - plus other economy stories to read this week

About us

Engage with us

  • Sign in
  • Partner with us
  • Become a member
  • Sign up for our press releases
  • Subscribe to our newsletters
  • Contact us

Quick links

Language editions

Privacy Policy & Terms of Service

Sitemap

© 2024 World Economic Forum