Britain's 'year-long recession', Expectations of rate rise grow and World Bank launches first insurance market for pandemic risk

Britain will be plunged into a year-long recession if it votes to leave the EU, according to a bleak analysis of the short-term economic shock of a Brexit vote to be published today by the Treasury.

The report suggests that growth could be 3.6 per cent lower after two years if Britain votes to leave the EU, compared with the forecast for continued growth after a vote to remain. (FT)

In the news

Fire onboard EgyptAir flight Smoke alarms had been triggered on flight MS804 in the minutes before it crashed killing all 66 people on board, French investigators have confirmed. Submarines are searching for the flight's data recorders. (FT, BBC)

Expectations of rate rise grow More than half of economists surveyed by the FT expect the Fed to tighten monetary policy at one of its next two meetings, in stark contrast to market views at the start of the month when concern over lacklustre global growth and choppy financial markets seemingly stayed the US central bank’s hand until 2017. (FT)

Austrian presidential run-off too close to call Far-right nationalist Norbert Hofer, of the Freedom party, won 50.2 per cent of the vote, according to projections based on early results. That gave him only a wafer-thin lead over his Green party opponent, Alexander Van der Bellen, on 49.8 per cent. (FT)

World Bank launches first insurance market for pandemic risk Outbreaks of diseases such as Ebola will trigger a $500m fund to help countries and health agencies fight infection. (FT)

Clinton’s lead over Trump narrows An NBC/WSJ poll shows Hillary Clinton’s advantage over Donald Trump has narrowed. She now leads the presumptive GOP nominee 46 per cent to 43 per cent. Pundits cautioned that it is early, and that the narrow gap is partially explained by Republican unity and the fractious Democratic primary fight. Sign up for our daily US politics newsletter here. (NBC)

José Mourinho set to helm Man U One of the most high-profile football managers in the world and the self-styled “special one” looks set for a return to the Premier League with Manchester United, just months after being sacked by Chelsea. (FT)

It's a big day for

BHS MPs investigating the collapse of the UK retailer will delve into the links between Sir Philip Green and investment bank Goldman Sachs. (FT)

US-Vietnam relations President Barack Obama heads to the southeast Asian country for a three-day visit aimed at boosting economic and defence ties with the Communist government. (Reuters)

Food for thought

Watching the insiders A deep dive into “Operation Tabernula”, the FCA’s most ambitious insider-trading case ever, and the broader fight against illicit traders in the City. (FT)

Thomas Piketty gets the last laugh Some critics dismissed Capital in the Twenty-First Century as doctrinaire, statistically flawed and boring. Three years later, the French economist’s broadside against rising financial inequality is receiving validation from an unlikely quarter: stock market investors. (FT)

Spaced out in Seoul Dozens of South Koreans this weekend vied for the title of most “spaced out” as part of a competition aimed at encouraging people to disconnect digitally. Participants, who were not even allowed to check their watches, were judged by the stability of their heart rate. (Guardian)

What a ‘CV of failures’ really reveals If your long list of life failures is actually quite short, then you probably aren’t trying hard enough. On the other hand, if it is very long that may mean you are a no hoper — or it may mean you merely aim high. “For each of us there is a perfect ratio of rejections to acceptances — probably about four to one: any fewer than that, and you aren’t putting yourself out there enough,” writes Lucy Kellaway. (FT)

Lunch with Carlo Ancelotti Over a bottle of Guidalberto and some melanzane, the food-loving Italian talks about managing galactic egos and how big businesses like his new club Bayern Munich can still be a family. (FT)

How Facebook warps our worlds When it comes to elevating one perspective above all others and herding people into ideologically inflexible tribes, nothing that Facebook does to us comes close to what we do to ourselves. “We’re the real culprits,” writes Frank Bruni. (NYT)

Video of the day

Week Ahead — G7 summit, HP results Problems in the world economy will top the agendaat the annual G7 summit in Japan, HP puts its faith in 3D printing, and EU foreign ministers continue to grapple with the migration crisis. (FT)