Climate Action

Scientists have warned that temperatures could leap by 8C by 2100

People play while cooling off in a public fountain as temperatures soar to around 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in central Madrid, Spain, July 13 2015. State meteorological office Aemet said on Wednesday it expected extreme temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius in central provinces for at least another week. REUTERS/Juan Medina      TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY      - RTX1K90U

A heatwave in Europe in 2003 killed 15,000 people in France and almost 3,000 in Italy. Image: REUTERS/Juan Medina

Alister Doyle
Writer, Reuters

Dangerously hot days are set to become more scorching by 2100 because of climate change with the U.S. Midwest or the Mediterranean region sizzling well above 40 degrees Celsius (104F), Dutch scientists said on Wednesday.

They said the likely jump in temperatures on the hottest summer days would far outpace the average of year-round global warming this century projected by the U.N. Climate Panel. Heatwaves can be a big threat to human health.

"The extremes warm faster than the averages," said Rob van Dorland, a spokesman for the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute which wrote the study with scientists at Utrecht University.

Image: Reuters

If world temperatures rose on average by perhaps 3 Celsius (5.4F) by 2100, the temperature on the most sweltering day of the year could leap by up to 8 Celsius (14.4F), he said.

Computer projections indicated that temperatures would hit baking peaks above 50 Celsius (122.00F) in parts of Australia, India, the Middle East, North Africa, the Sahel and equatorial and subtropical South America by the 2100.

"In much of the United States, in southern Europe and in the populated regions of Australia, values far exceeding 40 Celsius are reached," the scientists wrote in the journal of the American Geophysical Union.

"Such temperatures, if lasting for some days, are life-threatening and receive relatively little attention in the climate change debate," they wrote.

A heatwave in Europe in 2003 killed 15,000 people in France and almost 3,000 in Italy, mostly elderly people who are often most at risk. The Dutch report did not examine likely impacts on public health, or food production.

The U.N. Climate Panel projects that rising temperatures will cause more heatwaves, droughts, floods, contribute to spread disease and melt glaciers, pushing up world sea levels.

Dorland said it was unclear why extreme temperatures would rise so fast -- a theory was that warmer soils dry out, reducing the amount of heat they can absorb from the sun. "If the soil is drier, then solar energy goes more to heating the air," he said.

And a shift in wind patterns could also bring more sweltering conditions, for instance around the Mediterranean. "In the Mediterranean area we expect more southeasterly winds in summer...that means more sun and less cloud," he said.

Don't miss any update on this topic

Create a free account and access your personalized content collection with our latest publications and analyses.

Sign up for free

License and Republishing

World Economic Forum articles may be republished in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Public License, and in accordance with our Terms of Use.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.

Stay up to date:

Future of the Environment

Related topics:
Climate ActionHealth and Healthcare SystemsNature and Biodiversity
Share:
The Big Picture
Explore and monitor how Climate Crisis is affecting economies, industries and global issues
A hand holding a looking glass by a lake
Crowdsource Innovation
Get involved with our crowdsourced digital platform to deliver impact at scale
World Economic Forum logo
Global Agenda

The Agenda Weekly

A weekly update of the most important issues driving the global agenda

Subscribe today

You can unsubscribe at any time using the link in our emails. For more details, review our privacy policy.

Climate adaptation finance: The challenge for institutional investors and commercial banks

Matthew Cox and Luka Lightfoot

November 22, 2024

These fuel producers are leading the switch to zero-emission fuels in the shipping industry

About us

Engage with us

  • Sign in
  • Partner with us
  • Become a member
  • Sign up for our press releases
  • Subscribe to our newsletters
  • Contact us

Quick links

Language editions

Privacy Policy & Terms of Service

Sitemap

© 2024 World Economic Forum