EU growth forecasts have been downgraded - here's what it means

Jul 16, 2020

With the collaboration of Statista.

A scrap dealer leans on a traffic signal and watches as protesters (not pictured) take part in a "March for dignity" to protest against austerity measures under the slogan "Pan, techo, trabajo y dignidad" (Bread, housing, job and dignity) in downtown Malaga, southern Spain, October 22, 2015. Spain's unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level in over four years and is now lower than when Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy took office, potentially boosting his chances in an election less than two months away. Frustration over an enduring jobs crisis will weigh on the Dec. 20 vote, with many Spaniards divided over whether their prospects are improving after a double-dip recession that sent unemployment soaring to nearly 27 percent in 2013. REUTERS/Jon Nazca - GF20000028827

The GDP growth is now expected to contract by 8.3% not 7.4%. Image: REUTERS/Jon Nazca

Martin Armstrong

Data Journalist, Statista

The EU is expected to experience a deep recession this year as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.
The Summer Forecast, published by the European Commission on the 7 July, includes downgraded figures, meaning that Europe's recession is expected to be worse than first thought.
The GDP growth is now expected to contract by 8.3% not 7.4%.

In its Summer Forecast published on the 7th of July, the European Commission downgraded its own projection from earlier in the year, making for an even grimmer outlook for the EU economy in 2020. The -7.4 percent contraction originally expected has been reassessed to -8.3 percent.

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In the EC press release, the following context was given: "The EU economy will experience a deep recession this year due to the coronavirus pandemic, despite the swift and comprehensive policy response at both EU and national levels. Because the lifting of lockdown measures is proceeding at a more gradual pace than assumed in our Spring Forecast, the impact on economic activity in 2020 will be more significant than anticipated."

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Deep European Recession Forecast for 2020. Image: Statista

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