Global hunger fell for decades, but it's rising again

There are almost 60 million more undernourished people now than in 2014.

For decades leading up to the millennium, there were record harvests, incomes rose and food prices fell. That’s no longer the case.

In the past half decade things have been going backwards and could continue to worsen, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecasts in its annual review of the world’s food security and nutrition.

It’s a vision it describes as “an alarming scenario”.

Reforms to global food systems could help matters, but it won’t be easy and the full ripple effects of COVID-19 are still to be felt.

What does the report say?

With improved data, the FAO says it has greater confidence than ever in its latest estimates of world hunger.

Food insecurity – both moderate and severe – has “consistently increased” since 2014, when the prevalence of under-nourishment was at 8.6%. It is now at 8.9%. Between 2018 and 2019, the number of hungry people grew by 10 million people.

The majority of this increase has come from Asia, where the majority of undernourished people live – some 381 million. But Africa’s hungry population is the fastest growing and currently stands at 250 million.

There have been some positive developments. Fresh data from China showing how the country has improved diets over many years has enabled the FAO to revise down the number of hungry people it previously estimated had been in the world since 2000.

And between 2000 and 2019, the global prevalence of “child stunting” – impaired growth – declined by one-third.

There is also the complicating factor of obesity: just as the world is getting hungrier, every world region is also becoming more overweight. However, the FAO cautions that this should not be confused with improved nutrition – food insecurity often causes poor diets and weight gain.

Why is hunger getting worse?

When people get poorer they get hungry.

Since the 2009-9 financial crisis, economic slowdowns have hit many economies. The past decade has also brought a rising amount of debt to many poorer nations, which the FAO says has reduced growth. It may be one reason why almost 10% of the global population survives on $1.90 a day or less.

The report also identifies a high level of “commodity-import dependence” – a reliance on food and goods from outside a country’s borders that can increase food prices and scarcity. This has been seen during the pandemic as some countries have restricted food exports.

Added to this are conflicts, violence and “altered weather conditions.” And then there’s pests – such as locust swarms, which could leave millions at risk of starvation this year.

The COVID-19 impact

The FAO doesn’t know exactly what the virus will do to global hunger yet – it’s too early to say. However, whatever the scenario, it is expected to worsen food security and nutrition. The reasons include food supply disruption, which has already happened, albeit less catastrophically than some had feared.

The pandemic could increase the total number of undernourished people in the world by between 83 and 132 million in 2020. Although, earlier this year, the UN World Food Programme was forecasting an even more bleak scenario.

What can be done?

“Reducing the costs of nutritious foods and ensuring the affordability of healthy diets for everyone requires significant transformations of existing food systems worldwide,” the FAO says.

Clearly this will not be easy. International trade barriers and rising tariffs may have to be lowered, while agricultural policies will need to be shifted towards a more “nutrition-sensitive investment”, such as supporting fruit and vegetable crops.

In fact in many areas government policy will be key, from changing the taxation of energy-dense foods to improved regulation of food industries and better policies to support nutrition education.

This is why, despite the considerable challenges, the FAO says there are “significant opportunities” too.