Energy experts: Reaching net zero by 2050 relies on these 7 things

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) launched a preview of its World Energy Transitions Outlook on the 16th of March 2021. Dolf Gielen, Ricardo Gorini and Gayathri Prakash of the IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre give insight into some of the initial findings.

The preview of the World Energy Transitions Outlook provides details on how to reduce global CO2 emissions to net zero between now and 2050, in line with a 50% chance of staying within 1.5 degrees of warming by 2100, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This requires a steep and continuous downward CO2 emissions trajectory from today. The starting point is a remaining cumulative global energy and process CO2 emissions budget of 500 Gt. Policies in place (PES scenario[1]) will only yield a stabilisation of energy and process emissions, therefore, radical change is needed. The announcements for reaching net zero and carbon neutrality that cover 70-80% of global emissions must be translated into actionable strategies and policies.

The required energy transition is profound, as depicted in IRENA’s 1.5C climate pathway:

The key energy transition strategy components are robust and in line with other energy scenarios and studies. Most of the technologies for a net zero energy system are available today and while technology cost must be reduced further and deployment can be accelerated through innovations, it is imperative to ramp up the deployment now. Over 90% of the solutions for reaching net zero by 2050 involve renewable energy through direct supply, electrification, energy efficiency, green hydrogen and BECCS. An important finding is that the trajectory for a 2-degree scenario and a 1.5-degree scenario is largely the same in terms of technology and strategies that are deployed. The policy implication is that the direction of efforts is robust. What matters is that we start now.

At least for the energy component, the analysis suggests that elimination of emissions is feasible between now and 2050, based on established technologies. However, it is important to continue cost reduction efforts in the coming years in order to further reduce costs and drive the pace of transition.

Renewables’ share of primary energy supply must grow from 14% in 2018 to 74% in 2050, to meet the 1.5C scenario. Fossil fuel use will decline by more than 75% by 2050, with natural gas accounting for the bulk of remaining fossil fuel use. However, use of natural gas will most likely be limited to the production of “blue” hydrogen, coupled with carbon capture and storage technology, and some industrial processes and power generation.

Reaching net zero is affordable. Total energy sector investments increase from $98 trillion in the Planned Energy Scenario (PES) under current plans and planned policies to $131 trillion in the 1.5C scenario, a 34% growth. The types of investment change dramatically with energy transition investments growing from 56% to 83% of total investments and fossil fuel investments reduced accordingly. Annual energy investments would amount to $4.4 trillion per year over the next three decades. To put that number in perspective, global GDP amounted to $81 trillion in 2019 and GDP is projected to increase 2.5-fold by 2050.

The benefits of the energy transition exceed the cost. Benefits can be split into reduced fossil fuel supply cost and reduced externalities due to climate change mitigation and a reduction of local air pollution health impacts. The externalities are critical in this assessment. It points to the need for policy intervention to make the energy transition a reality, in order to internalise these externalities.

Reaching a net zero carbon future by 2050 may seem challenging, however, the analysis indicates that such a pathway is still feasible. But it requires a massive ramp-up of efforts. The transition trajectory is currently being elaborated further, including regional details and sector-specific strategies, as well as socio-economic impacts and financing strategies. The findings will be released later this year.

IRENA’s Outlook shows that we need the highest levels of commitment and ambition, paired with strong international collaboration to enable a meaningful and rapid shift to a 1.5-degree course. 2021 is a pivotal year for energy. The United Nations Secretary-General will convene a high-level dialogue on Energy in September, and IRENA is honoured to co-lead the energy transition theme. Along with COP26 later in the year, these are important milestones for collective action for reaching net zero.