Health and Healthcare Systems

What will the global population be by 2100? Scientists can't agree

The growth in global population is dividing scientists.

The UN population division estimates that by 2100 they'll be 10.9 billion people on the planet. Image: REUTERS/Issei Kato

Katharina Buchholz
Data Journalist, Statista
  • Researchers can't agree whether the world's population will increase or decrease over the next century.
  • The U.N. population division assume that by 2100 they'll be 10.9 billion people on the planet.
  • Researchers of the University of Washington however believe that the population of the world will be between 6.3 and 8.8 billion people.
  • It also assumes the global population will peak in 2064 at 9.7 billion people.

The world has already set the course for a future population decline - while experts agree on this, they haven't been on the same page about just how fast the number of people on this Earth will shrink.

In an article published in medical journal The Lancet, researchers of the University of Washington, for example, challenge the U.N. population division's view that world populations will rise beyond the end of this century. They assume that by 2100, the population of the world will be between 6.3 and 8.8 billion people - so potentially fewer than in the year 2020. The researchers conclude that the speed of population decline is linked to the speed of the attainment of developmental goals, most notably education for women and girls and access to contraception. Furthermore, the Lancet authors point out that models of population growth have proven to be very stable while those dealing with population decline were much less reliable.

Have you read?
a chart showing global population predictions
Researchers can't agree whether the world's population will increase or decrease over the next century. Image: Statista
Discover

What is the World Economic Forum doing to promote sustainable urban development?

While the U.N. predicts that the world population will continue to grow past 2100, the Lancet article's base scenario assumes it will peak in 2064 at 9.7 billion people. According to the researchers, populations in Europe and Central Asia would already peak in 2023, while that date would be 2032 in East and Southeast Asia, 2049 in South Asia, 2055 in Latin America, 2064 in the U.S. and Canada as well as 2084 in North Africa and the Middle East and 2100 in Sub-Saharan Africa (taking into account migration patterns).

Loading...
Don't miss any update on this topic

Create a free account and access your personalized content collection with our latest publications and analyses.

Sign up for free

License and Republishing

World Economic Forum articles may be republished in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Public License, and in accordance with our Terms of Use.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.

Stay up to date:

Ageing and Longevity

Related topics:
Health and Healthcare SystemsJobs and the Future of Work
Share:
The Big Picture
Explore and monitor how Ageing and Longevity is affecting economies, industries and global issues
A hand holding a looking glass by a lake
Crowdsource Innovation
Get involved with our crowdsourced digital platform to deliver impact at scale
World Economic Forum logo
Global Agenda

The Agenda Weekly

A weekly update of the most important issues driving the global agenda

Subscribe today

You can unsubscribe at any time using the link in our emails. For more details, review our privacy policy.

Not just a number: Science is redefining how we understand ageing

Zili Huang and Kejun Albert Ying

November 1, 2024

How AI could expand and improve access to mental health treatment

About us

Engage with us

  • Sign in
  • Partner with us
  • Become a member
  • Sign up for our press releases
  • Subscribe to our newsletters
  • Contact us

Quick links

Language editions

Privacy Policy & Terms of Service

Sitemap

© 2024 World Economic Forum