These 3 charts show how climate change is putting energy security at risk

Global energy systems are one of the biggest contributors to the greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change. The production and use of energy contributes almost three-quarters of all greenhouse gas emissions, according to analysis by Our World in Data.

It’s a particularly bitter irony that the energy production industry faces significant threats from climate change. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says severe weather events and other climate trends could undermine the security of supply from renewables as well as traditional fossil fuels. The threats are revealed in an IEA report entitled, Climate Resilience for Energy Security.

The report pulls no punches in describing the nature of energy risks posed by climate change, stating: “Climate change directly affects every aspect of the energy system, from the extraction, processing and transport of fuels and minerals, to the potential, efficiency and reliability of power generation, to the physical resilience of energy infrastructure, as well as impacting energy demand patterns. According to most scenarios, climate change disruptions are likely to increase in magnitude in the coming decades.”

Here are three charts from the report that show just how vulnerable global energy systems are to climate change.

The whole range of energy systems is under threat - to a greater or lesser extent - from climate impacts. Rising temperatures, dwindling water supplies, cyclones and wildfires, and rising sea levels all pose a major risk to energy production.

However, governments and industry sectors are still in a position to protect global energy systems by limiting the worst impact of climate change, according the IEA report. The authors are clear that the potential consequences are not yet set in stone. The chart below shows the impact in industry sectors is dependent on the severity of climate change.

“The magnitude of climate change impacts on fuels and minerals is closely linked to climate pathways,” says the IEA report.

“If GHG emissions are reduced, the impacts can be limited … if GHG emissions are not mitigated, climate change impacts can be extended further, adding concerns such as severe water shortage for mines and sea-level rise and rapid permafrost melting.”

Around a third of oil and natural gas refineries are located in low-lying coastal areas that are vulnerable to rising sea levels, according to the IEA report, which says; “refineries and liquefied natural gas plants in low-lying coastal areas may experience greater risk from storm surges and coastal floods due to sea-level rise, coupled with more intense tropical cyclones.

“In the highest-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), around 95% of refineries would be subject to over 0.6m rise; among them, 10% could see over 1m of sea-level rise.”

The report says the changing climate could also limit access to critical metals and minerals that will be vital in the production of new energy technologies such as batteries for renewable electricity storage. Rare earth elements are essential for permanent magnets that are needed in wind turbines and motors for electric vehicles - and they could also be affected by climate conditions.

The major threat to supplies of these critical minerals is water stress, as mining them requires huge quantities of water for ore extraction and processing.

The IEA cites concerns over the concentration of critical mineral production to just a few countries: “The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is responsible for around 70% of the global production of cobalt, while China accounts for around 60% of rare earth elements and graphite production. South Africa covers over 70% of platinum, while Australia and Chile provide three-quarters of lithium.”

The IEA report makes clear that one of the biggest contributors to global warming will also be one of the biggest beneficiaries of limiting the effects of climate change. Energy systems are a huge part of the problem, but the energy transition is one of the strongest pathways to a solution. As we move into a more sustainable future, ensuring that climate change doesn’t limit our clean energy options will be crucial.