Chief economists on the global economy, and other economics stories to read

The latest World Economic Forum Chief Economists Outlook suggests a sense of cautiously growing optimism about the global economy this year. Of those surveyed, 82% expect it to remain stable or strengthen this year – a doubling from the end of last year.

And more than two-thirds expect a sustained rebound in global growth, driven by factors such as technological transformation, artificial intelligence and the green transition.

However, global and domestic tensions remain a risk, with 97% of chief economists believing that geopolitics will add to global economic volatility in 2024.

“The latest Chief Economists Outlook points to welcome but tentative signs of improvement in the global economic climate,” said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director, World Economic Forum. “This underscores the increasingly complex landscape that leaders are navigating. There is an urgent need for policy-making that not only looks to revive the engines of the global economy but also seeks to put in place the foundations of more inclusive, sustainable and resilient growth.”

Major developing economies are set to see net capital inflows rise by nearly a third in 2024, increasing to $903 billion. However, much of that value rests on maintaining global growth, according to the Institute of International Finance, a banking trade group.

The report said that "a global 'soft landing' scenario makes for a positive picture for capital flows to EMs".

The increase is expected to largely be driven by a strong recovery in foreign direct investment and by cash directed at equity portfolios.

Capital flows are a component of a country's balance of payments, alongside the current account balance and changes in reserves.

German inflation rose to 2.8% in May, up from 2.4% in Europe. The uptick was expected, although its extent was slightly above the 2.7% predicted by a Reuters poll.

Business confidence in Germany, meanwhile, stayed constant from April to May.

Australian inflation rose to a five-month high in April, with the country's consumer price index rising 3.6% year-on-year, up from 3.5% in March.

US consumer confidence improved in May, after having dropped for the three previous months. It comes amid labour market optimism, although concerns over inflation remain, Reuters reports.

Corporate services prices in Japan rose at their fastest pace since early 2015, according to new data from the Bank of Japan.

Profits at China's industrial firms increased 4.3% in the first four months this year, compared to the same period last year.

The International Monetary Fund has updated its forecasts for China's economic growth this year from 4.6% to 5%.

Finland has emerged from recession after reporting gross domestic product growth of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter.

Four chief economists provide further insights into the global economy, following the release of the latest Chief Economists Outlook. Read more from Indermit Gill, Renan Pinheiro Silverio, Beata Javorcik and Debora Revoltella.

Marie McAuliffe, Head of Migration Research at the International Organization for Migration, explores the impact of international migrants on human development and the global economy.

How can the energy transition help boost inclusive and sustainable global economic growth? Read what global leaders had to say at our Special Meeting on Global Collaboration, Growth and Energy.