We can fend off climate fatalism by limiting near-term warming 

The day after the hottest day on record, the White House hosted a first-ever summit on 23 July, spotlighting the need for deep reductions in climate super pollutants such as methane to slow warming to lessen the climate crisis quickly. The super pollutants are the fast half of climate solutions. Cutting them is the only way to show the public real results in the next 10 to 20 years.

As costly climate change impacts painfully manifest across the United States and globally, the risk of climate fatalism can grow. Yet, the assumption that nothing can be done to limit climate change is simply incorrect. We know how to solve the problem and prevent the worst climate impacts.

Deeply cutting super pollutants such as methane, hydrofluorocarbons, ground-level ozone, nitrous oxide and black carbon will limit near-term temperatures. These climate super pollutants are tens, hundreds and even thousands of times more powerful in trapping heat per pound than carbon dioxide. Most are also short-lived, so cutting them provides fast benefits for the climate while preventing trillions in climate impact costs and millions of deaths every year.

It is also critical to cut carbon dioxide from fossil fuels as fast as possible to limit temperature increases, although the major climate benefits of doing so take longer to manifest.

Instead of being fatalistic, we should be optimistic that we can prevent climate catastrophe by acting now on both super pollutants and carbon dioxide. This matters because five times as many Americans believe climate change is happening as those who don’t and two-thirds of Americans are worried about the problem.

To succeed, we must increase our efforts quickly, including by directing more funding toward cutting super pollutants to limit near-term temperature increases and stave off climate tipping points in natural systems that, if allowed to grow, may spin out of control.

Last year, major philanthropies pledged $450 million over three years to reduce super pollutants. But this funding is the floor, not the ceiling, and must grow so that cutting super pollutants can fully limit global temperature increases.

History shows that we can succeed. Starting in the 1970s, we recognized the ozone layer depletion problem and created the Montreal Protocol to phase out ozone-depleting substances that were also potent climate pollutants. These actions are successfully repairing the ozone layer and reducing warming, too.

Last decade, more than 190 nations approved the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol to phase down the super climate pollutant hydrofluorocarbons, which can avoid nearly 0.5 degrees Celsius of warming this century. A bipartisan vote in the US Senate approved ratification of the Kigali Amendment two years ago.

Today, we must urgently reduce all super pollutants, responsible for half of warming, while also reducing carbon dioxide, which is behind the other half. Because super pollutants generally stay in the atmosphere for only a short time, reducing them aggressively would prevent four times more warming by 2050 than cutting carbon dioxide alone.

The White House Summit showcased a whole-of-government approach, including over 100 actions to reduce methane from fossil fuels, landfills and agriculture at home and abroad through the US Agency for International Development Food Loss and Waste Accelerator. A new $10 million World Bank programme will reduce 10 million tonnes of methane and more than $300 million to support the Global Methane Hub from a consortium of philanthropies will further catalyze methane action.

US companies announced actions to cut industrial nitrous oxide emissions by 50% by 2025 compared with 2020. Technologies to stop industrial emissions of nitrous oxide from adipic and nitric acid plants represent a promising avenue for US-China climate action.

Cleaning up ground-level ozone (smog) and black carbon soot (particulate matter pollution) by updating the Clean Air Act and strengthening vehicle fuel efficiency standards, as the US Environmental Protection Agency is doing, will also improve air quality and save lives.

Global leaders are recognizing the centrality of super pollutant mitigation in overall climate protection.

Under the Biden-Harris administration, the United States has become a global leader in reducing methane, including through the Global Methane Pledge, where 157 country participants representing more than half of methane globally have committed to cutting methane from all sources by 30% this decade. China and many other countries are developing a methane mitigation plan.

Climate action stalwarts, including Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley, are increasingly pointing to methane mitigation as a linchpin in limiting warming. Even Pope Francis has recently launched a call to action on climate change including a sprint to drastically reduce super pollutants, along with a marathon to reduce carbon dioxide. These two strategies are complementary and not interchangeable.

Time is short, however. Global temperatures have risen to record extremes in recent years and are forecast to surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels this decade.

Temperatures this high increase the potential of triggering climate change feedback and tipping points, which can turn natural systems like Arctic sea ice and many others from net warming inhibitors into warming contributors, leading to more warming in a vicious cycle.

The good news is we know how to prevent such extreme climate change. Phasing out fossil fuels and transitioning to clean energy by mid-century is critical. But long before then, we must limit super pollutants to control near-term temperatures more effectively to slow the self-amplifying feedbacks and head off climate change tipping points.

For those working to address the climate emergency, prioritizing super pollutants is a must to prevent the worst impacts on our way to a sustainable energy and climate future. This includes informing the public about the central role of super climate pollutant mitigation in overall climate protection.

The White House Summit on Super Pollutants is a good start. By strengthening and delivering on commitments, we will increase public confidence in our ability to implement effective climate solutions but we must act urgently now.