Global Methane Pledge: which countries are cutting emissions?

As the world grapples with the escalating climate crisis, methane has emerged as a crucial battleground. Earth observation technology, capable of processing terabytes of raw satellite data using AI, has revealed the extent of methane emissions across the world and highlighted their catastrophic effect on our planet: in its first 20 years in the atmosphere, methane has over 80 times the warming power of carbon dioxide.

At COP26, the Global Methane Pledge (GMP) was introduced as a means to address this potent greenhouse gas (GHG). It aims to cut global methane emissions by at least 30% from 2020 levels by 2030. But making pledges is one thing; honouring them is another. So, with COP29 later this year in Azerbaijan, we must ask ourselves: who is keeping their promises?

At COP28, a number of countries made major methane pledges. The US said it would bring in rules aimed at reducing methane emissions from oil and gas operations by nearly 80% below projected future levels. The EU adopted its first methane regulations, setting strict criteria for both domestically produced and imported fossil fuels, including a methane import standard by 2030. Canada committed to cutting methane emissions in the upstream oil and gas sector by 75% below 2012 levels by 2030​.

But the path to making these substantial methane reductions, and honouring these admirable pledges, is fraught with obstacles. A report from the Clean Air Task Force found that while high-level pledges are essential, they often fail, like an uncosted political manifesto, to be supported by a detailed plan needed for the reductions actually to take place. This gap between saying and doing is clear to see in many countries, where ambitious targets have not yet been transformed into enforceable measures.

Brazil has made progress by setting guidelines for methane reduction in its oil and gas sector, with regulations expected by the end of 2025. Egypt is in a similar position: it plans to develop domestic methane regulations by the end of 2024. But in both, we find that everything is still in the planning stages.

But some countries have made tangible progress. The EU, having been supported by and having consulted with a number of partners, including ourselves at Kayrros, has implemented comprehensive methane regulations that include monitoring and abatement for both domestically produced and imported fossil fuels as well as mandatory leak checks and a ban on venting and flaring practices. The EU's proactive approach serves as a fine model for regulatory frameworks which can lead to significant emissions reductions​.

Nigeria has also taken big steps forward under its Nigeria Gas Flare Commercialization Programme (NGFCP), which aims to capture over half of all gas flaring volumes in the country. This programme also reiterates the importance of national initiatives that prioritise methane reduction and ensure the enforcement of guidelines​​.

Methane abatement is clearly crucial, but it’s also relatively easy and inexpensive to do, compared to other GHG reduction strategies. Many methane reduction technologies are cost-effective and can be implemented quickly, making methane abatement an “easy win” in the battle against climate change. For example, fixing leaks in oil and gas infrastructure and capturing gas that would otherwise be flared can significantly reduce atmospheric emissions with a rapid return on investment. These measures are among the most cost-effective climate strategies available, often paying for themselves through the sale of captured gas.

Despite the relative ease with which methane emissions can be identified and brought down, the broader picture remains concerning. Many major methane emitters fall short of their pledges.

An equally alarming phenomenon is the vast underreporting of methane emissions, particularly rife in the oil and gas sector. Our recent modelling shows 16.1 times larger methane intensities than those reported by oil and gas producers. This highlights the importance of transparent monitoring mechanisms, rooted in objective data and not self-reporting, to ensure pledges aren’t simply being adhered to on paper but in reality.

Setting aside partisan concerns for the global objective of reducing global warming is paramount. The US and China have set an example here, and should be applauded for entering a dialogue around methane reduction initiatives. Other initiatives, like the Global Flaring and Methane Reduction Partnership, launched by the World Bank with significant funding, are vital. They aim to support methane reduction in developing countries. Earth observation technology remains imperative to informing initiatives like these, given that it is an objective, third-party source of knowledge, immune to national or regional self-interests. The World Bank's Global Gas Flaring Tracker Report 2024, underpinned in large part by earth observation data, shows that gas flaring has risen this year, up 7% since 2022 despite only a 1% increase in oil production.

As we approach COP29, all nations must intensify their efforts to meet their methane reduction targets. Earth observation data has revealed the biggest culprits responsible for methane emissions. Pledges have been made to reduce them and now, it’s time for action. This involves setting ambitious goals and developing detailed, enforceable, plans to meet these targets. Successes should be celebrated, but we must also appreciate the work needed to turn global pledges into results. Only through sustained effort, robust policies, and international cooperation can we meet the critical targets set by the GMP and make a meaningful impact on global methane emissions.