3 science-based frameworks that explain planetary system disruptions and the pathways for action 

Our planet is in the throes of a human-made crisis. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world’s leading climate science body, humans have been responsible for 100% of the warming of our planet over the past decade.

We have just experienced 12 months with temperatures an average of 1.64 degrees Celsius above preindustrial averages. Such scientific observations, together with the lived experience of grassroots communities at the forefront of disruption, indicate that the nature and climate crisis has reached new levels of critical and systemic risk.

Responding appropriately to this risk and the actions needed to safeguard a just transition requires understanding the major scientific frameworks that summarize Earth system science and connect them to corporate and human implications. These frameworks help us chart a fully informed yet optimistic path forward, taking account of the tough realities while identifying the most impactful levers of positive change.

Earth system scientists work with three interconnected yet distinct frameworks that help us understand what is happening to our planet. They build on each other.

The IPCC defines a tipping point as a critical threshold beyond which a system or tipping element reorganizes, often abruptly or irreversibly. Tipping elements are found on land, ice and in the ocean. When triggered, they result in accelerating rates of warming and changes to landscapes that have far-reaching impacts on economies, societies and ecological zones around the world.

Because tipping elements are interlinked, crossing one tipping point may set off one or more, resulting in a tipping “cascade.” Tipping points are indeed the most important reason why the Paris 1.5-degree target is, in fact, a physical threshold, not just a political one. Beyond 1.5 degrees, several key Earth systems are predicted to adjust unavoidably and irreversibly.

Even if the cause of the initial warming ends, tipped systems do not return to their initial stable state. Think of a ball that is hard to push up a hill. At the top of the hill, just a small nudge is enough to send it down the other side but the same slight nudge in the other direction will not be enough to return it to the top.

Scientists have identified more than 25 Earth system tipping points. Five of these are predicted to tip when long-term global temperature change reaches 1.5 degrees – a threshold likely to be breached within the next decade.

These include the collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the loss of warm-water coral reefs, abrupt permafrost thaw and slowing of the North Atlantic Subpolar gyre. The degradation and tipping of these systems propel global heating, create food and water insecurity, damage and strand physical infrastructure, destabilize political systems, compromise health and wellbeing and amplify inequality.

Tipping point science is an evolving field. Another group of scientists refer to 16 climate tipping elements, a subset of the broader group of 25 above. These are only triggered by a global temperature rise (not landscape changes) and their tipping affects the global climate system through reinforcing warming. Research institutes worldwide are comparing the results of large computer models to understand better how, when and where tipping occurs, which will open up new areas of inquiry.

Experts are also studying how tipping dynamics can be harnessed in economies and societies to create positive tipping points for transformational change.

Planetary boundaries put limits on distortion of the Earth system to ensure that humanity can exist safely and will have the opportunity to continually develop and thrive for generations to come. Some thresholds defined in this framework draw on the science of tipping points and help highlight the key levers of change where humanity can act today to avoid unacceptable risks.

To date, six of the nine boundaries have been transgressed. We can return to a safe operating space within planetary boundaries if we act quickly. However, the more systems that tip into states of equilibrium, the more challenging it will be to bring these boundaries back into safe domains.

One of the main conclusions of planetary boundary science is that a global focus on climate change alone is insufficient for increased sustainability. Understanding the interplay between boundaries, particularly those on climate and nature, is essential to developing actions that truly safeguard planetary systems and human welfare.

Safe and just Earth system boundaries were quantified in 2023 by the Earth Commission. They expand on both tipping point science and planetary boundary assessments by considering justice, equity and human well-being alongside the planet’s biophysical stability. By doing so, the needs and impacts of humans and other living beings are considered, ensuring the health of our planet and those who live on it are given equal prominence.

The safe boundary is 1.5 degrees above preindustrial averages, which ensures the biophysical stability of our planet. The just boundary is set at just 1 degree, as millions are already harmed by current levels of warming. The Earth system boundaries advocate for a safe and just world, one where harm is minimized, minimum access needs are met and resources and responsibilities are redistributed to enhance human health and well-being.

The most recent science shows that it is possible for all humans to escape poverty and be safe from harm caused by Earth system change if economic systems and technologies are transformed more urgently and critical resources are more fairly used, managed, and shared.

Obtaining updated information on the latest state of Earth systems and associated risks is essential to supporting effective responses. The Planetary Health Check launched in New York this week. For the first time, an annual update of the status of each planetary boundary will be provided, compared to the six-to-eight-year cycle of past scientific assessments.

This development is down to collaboration across a coalition of actors, supported by the World Economic Forum’s Earth Decides community, the Giving to Amplify Earth Action (GAEA) initiative and the Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution’s Earth Observation community.

Secondly, more work is needed to extend these three scientific frameworks into concrete and actionable decisions by industries. The Forum will publish a report in January 2025 on building industry resilience to climate hazards that outlines financial losses from fixed assets, supply chain losses and societal losses from seven climate hazards: extreme heat, coastal floods, fluvial floods, tropical cyclones, drought, water stress and wildfire.

The severity and impact of these hazards are tied to increasing systemic risks, which will be amplified if tipping points are crossed.

Finally, collaborative ecosystems are needed, where funders collaborate with scientists, communities on the ground and industry players to scale proven approaches that build resilience while rapidly decarbonizing economic systems. Strategies to avoid unintended negative consequences of divestment in landscapes and communities at greatest risk is an emerging theme that deserves more attention.

The Forum’s Centre for Nature and Climate focuses efforts on:

These pillars are enabled by GAEA, which works with private-public-philanthropic partnerships and Global Collaboration, which works with experts, youth and stakeholders from the grassroots.