Rethinking trade and cooperation in an era of uncertainty to navigate global shocks

The global economy is navigating uncharted waters. Geopolitical conflicts, supply chain disruptions and political uncertainties dominate headlines, casting a shadow over economic growth and stability.

As policy-makers worldwide grapple with these challenges, a Donald Trump has re-entered the global stage as US president-elect. However, it would be short sighted to believe that the geopolitical landscape is being shaped by one leader.

Across continents, governments are responding to their electorates’ concerns by embracing strategies like friendshoring and nearshoring. While these approaches address local anxieties about globalization, they also raise the spectre of trade wars, an often-ineffective solution to deeply rooted challenges.

Globalization, once seen as a driver of prosperity, is increasingly viewed with suspicion by many, with electorates becoming more vocal about job security, fair trade and national sovereignty.

These concerns have prompted leaders to pivot towards more domestically-oriented economic strategies. Policies encouraging companies to move production closer to home or to allied nations reflect this shift.

While such moves may alleviate voter concerns in the short term, they often come at a high cost. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that increasing trade restrictions could reduce global economic output by a staggering $7.4 trillion. The stakes are too high to let reactionary policies undermine long-term global growth.

Trump’s imminent return to the White House now brings renewed attention to the topics of tariffs and trade wars as policy tools. Trump’s rhetoric on tariffs as a panacea for economic disparities resonates with segments of the electorate, but risks igniting economic conflicts that hurt all parties involved.

During his first term as president, the US-China trade war disrupted supply chains, raised costs for businesses and imposed billions of dollars in economic damage on both sides. US farmers alone faced estimated losses exceeding $12 billion annually, prompting federal subsidies to offset the impact.

Meanwhile, tariffs on Chinese goods drove up production costs for US manufacturers and consumer prices. The US Federal Reserve estimated the trade war reduced US GDP by 0.3% – equivalent to $62 billion – while global supply chain networks struggled to adapt, leading to higher prices and market volatility.

Trump’s proposed trade policies for his second term, including broad tariffs on imports, could amplify these effects. While intended to protect US industries, such measures risk increasing inflation and hurting consumer spending power. The broader economic implications include heightened tensions with trade partners and potential retaliatory measures, exacerbating further global economic fragmentation.

The question we face is this: Can we establish stronger frameworks to promote stability and sustainable growth in an era of rising protectionism?

The answer lies in balance. We must heed the electorate’s concerns without dismantling the systems that underpin global prosperity.

If we fail to address these issues, the consequences will be severe. Rising trade barriers and economic fragmentation could lead to a prolonged global recession. The IMF warns that reduced trade opportunities could hinder productivity, suppress wages and stifle technological advancement.

For emerging economies, the impacts would be particularly devastating. Reduced trade opportunities could undermine industrialization efforts, exacerbate inequality and slow poverty reduction.

Many developing nations rely heavily on export-led growth; disruptions to global supply chains would compromise their access to critical markets, increasing unemployment and social unrest.

The broader implications are geopolitical as well as economic. Fragmented trade relationships risk deepening divides between nations, fostering mistrust and competition. In an interconnected world, such outcomes threaten the collective ability to address global challenges like climate change and energy transitions.

To chart a sustainable path forward, we must embrace policies that strike a balance between local and global interests. Friendshoring and nearshoring can coexist with global cooperation if implemented thoughtfully. The goal should not be to isolate but to adapt – reshaping globalization to meet the needs of today’s interconnected world.

Policy-makers must resist the allure of quick fixes. Instead, they should pursue policies that promote inclusivity, resilience and innovation. The global economy’s momentum can only be maintained through collaboration and shared responsibility.

The current landscape is fraught with challenges, but it is also an opportunity to redefine the rules of engagement in the global economy. By addressing the root causes of voter anxieties and fostering international cooperation, we can build a more resilient and equitable system.

As we navigate this era of uncertainty, let us remember that long-term growth is the ultimate prize. To secure it, we must better understand and navigate the interconnected nature of global shocks, electorate concerns and the need for cooperation.

The path forward is complex, but with pragmatic leadership and a commitment to shared prosperity, it is within reach.