Climate Action

World set to breach 1.5°C warming limit in 2024, and other nature and climate stories you need to read this week

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A tourist uses a fountain to cool off amid a heatwave, in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina,.

It is likely that the global average temperature in 2024 will be more than 1.55°C. Image: REUTERS/Amel Emric

Tom Crowfoot
Writer, Forum Agenda
  • This weekly round-up contains the key nature and climate news from the past week.
  • Top nature and climate news: World set to breach 1.5°C warming limit in 2024; How will US environmental policies change?; Amazon deforestation at lowest level since 2015.

1. Warmest year on record, breaching the 1.5°C limit

It is now "virtually certain" that 2024 will be the warmest year on record, according to analysis from Copernicus, the European Union's Climate Change Service.

Not only that, but this year will be the first to see temperatures of more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, which breaches the threshold set by the Paris Agreement.

A chart showing annual global temperature anomalies relative to pre-industrial.
The 1.5°C warming limit is projected to be breached this year. Image: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF

The global average temperature in 2024 will likely be more than 1.55°C, compared to 1.48°C in 2023.

And this rise is likely irreversible. Copernicus states that "for 2024 to not be warmer than 2023, the average temperature anomaly for the remaining two months of this year would have to decrease by an unprecedented amount, nearly reaching zero".

"This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming Climate Change Conference, COP29."

—Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service
Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service

These findings are based on billions of weather measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world.

2. What will the US presidential election mean for the climate?

There is much debate regarding what the election of the 47th US President, Donald Trump, will mean for global climate goals.

Here, Reuters outlines some of the Trump administration's proposed environmental policies:

  • Increase US production of fossil fuels by easing the permitting process for drilling on federal land. President Trump has vowed to reauthorize oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska.
  • Pull the US out of the Paris Climate Agreement, the most important United Nations process to tackle climate change.
  • Support increased nuclear energy production, as part of his plan to increase the nation's energy supply needed for artificial intelligence systems.
  • Roll back Joe Biden's electric vehicle mandates and other policies aimed at reducing transport emissions.

While these predictions could not be described as progressive, the full policy picture remains unclear and the big global climate decisions are more likely to come out of China than Washington, according to The Guardian.

China's emissions have flatlined, signalling potential progress, but it remains the largest emitter while also leading in renewable energy, especially solar power.

Uncertainty appears the order of the day as world leaders gather for COP29.

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3. News in brief: Other top nature and climate stories this week

Deforestation in Brazil's Amazon rainforest fell 30.6% in the 12 months through July compared to the same period a year prior, according to government data. Roughly 2,428 square miles of the Amazon were destroyed over this period, which makes it the lowest level of deforestation since 2015.

Plastic pollution is changing the entire Earth system, say scientists from the Stockholm Resilience Centre. Their study found that plastic pollution impacts all nine planetary boundaries, including climate change, ocean acidification and biodiversity loss.

"Plastics are often seen as something that makes our lives easier and that can be ‘easily cleaned up’ once it becomes waste. But this is far from reality."

—Patricia Villarrubia-Gómez, lead author of the study from the Stockholm Resilience Centre.
Patricia Villarrubia-Gómez, lead author of the study from the Stockholm Resilience Centre.

Climate breakdown is projected to hit global growth by a third, finds a risk assessment by a network of central banks, published in Nature. This will come from physical shocks due to extreme weather, such as flooding or drought.

It is "essential to act now" to prevent a chaotic climate breakdown, warned Secretary-General of the United Nations António Guterres in a pre-COP29 interview with The Guardian. He urged greater cooperation on the interlinked environmental crises, highlighting that tackling biodiversity loss would help the world fight the climate crisis.

Prince William announced the winners of the annual Earthshot Prize, with awards for achievements such as saving the critically endangered Saiga antelope from extinction in Kazakhstan and building circular waste management infrastructure across Africa.

Over 420,000 children are being affected by record-breaking drought in the Amazon region, according to a report from Unicef. Two years of drought leave them facing shortages of water and food or limited access to school.

COP16 has produced "an alarming lack of progress" in saving nature, reports the BBC. Experts say most countries missed the deadline for producing detailed plans on how they intended to meet biodiversity targets.

4. COP29 begins

COP29 started this week. The climate summit, held this year in Baku, is a key moment for leaders to make progress on long-held commitments. As they gather, these articles can help orient you on top issues.

5. More on the nature and climate crisis on Agenda

The Middle East and North Africa region faces considerable climate-related challenges. However, it has abundant access to solar and wind energy, a ready supply of capital and a long-term sustainability focus among many of its governments. A new report from the World Economic Forum offers a roadmap for companies across the region to elevate their environmental disclosure practices and sustainability performance in alignment with internationally recognized standards.

With the effects of extreme weather being experienced around the world, COP29 must establish a $1 trillion climate finance target to support vulnerable countries. This must come from wealthy nations, who bear a responsibility to fund climate action as historically they have contributed the most towards the climate crisis by emitting greenhouse gas emissions, says Debbie Hillier, UNFCCC Policy Lead, Mercy Corps.

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Contents
1. Warmest year on record, breaching the 1.5°C limit2. What will the US presidential election mean for the climate?3. News in brief: Other top nature and climate stories this week4. COP29 begins5. More on the nature and climate crisis on Agenda

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