Our civilization’s survival depends on collective action

The UN estimates an additional 1.6 billion people will live on Earth by 2050. Population growth is one of the dominant drivers of civilizational collapse because resources are finite. Earth Overshoot Day, which fell on 1 August 2024, marks the moment when humanity has exhausted nature’s budget for the year. We currently consume 1.7 Earth budgets per year.

These stark realities echo the warnings from Jared Diamond’s New York Times bestseller Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, published 20 years ago this month.

Diamond identified eight processes that lead to unintended ecocide – or ecological suicide – that caused past civilizations of humans to fail: deforestation and habitat destruction; declining soil health like erosion, fertility and salination; challenges managing freshwater resources; over hunting; over-fishing; invasive species; human population growth; increased per capita environmental impact.

Deforestation, natural habitats, soil health and water quality are in steep decline. Despite a landmark commitment to end deforestation by 2030, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that 10 million hectares of forest are cut down globally each year, with a net loss of 4.7 million hectares per year, after accounting for regenerated forests.

Additionally, about one-third of the world soils are moderately or highly degraded – with diminished capacity to provide goods and services thereby destabilizing food security. Global freshwater demand will outstrip supply by 40% by 2030, according to the first comprehensive review of Earth’s global water system.

Whilst hunting and fishing have largely been replaced by agricultural systems, average annual agricultural total factor productivity growth has consistently fallen since 2011 below the target growth rate required to sustainably meet global needs for agricultural outputs by 2050. At the same time biodiverse species populations have declined an unprecedented 69% on average since 1970.

The cost of invasive species has quadrupled every decade since 1970, to at least $423 billion every year. Of 37,000 alien species over 3,500 are considered harmful – destroying crops, eliminating native species, polluting waterways, spreading disease and laying the groundwork for devastating natural disasters. With climate change, sleeper species that are currently not harmful, could become invasive.

Tracking the collapse of civilizations globally since pre-history, Diamond diagnosed their biggest drivers, and the early signs of failure. His framework offers us keys that, if effectively applied, could support our civilization’s survival where others have failed.

Diamond identifies a further four threats that are uniquely faced by civilization today: anthropogenic climate change; energy shortages; build-up of toxic chemicals in the environment; full utilization of Earth’s photosynthesis capacity. Once more, our performance in these domains is dire.

According to the IPCC, human emissions account for 100% of the current warming experienced today. With 1.64C of warming above pre-industrial averages over the last year, records continue to be broken for ocean heat, sea level rise, Antarctic sea-ice loss and glacier retreat. Signs of existential threat may be most clearly viewed by the results of the 2023 Global Tipping Points report.

Today, five Earth systems are at imminent risk of tipping into states of irreversible decline. If the Greenland and West Antarctica ice sheets tip – two of those imminently threatened – the world will experience 10m of sea-level rise in the centuries ahead. Today, Earth supports 570 coastal cities – with a total population of over 800 million. As 14 of the world’s 17 largest cities are also coastal this event would spell social and economic disruptions globally.

But Diamond’s analysis did not account for Earth system tipping points – as the seminal paper written in 2008 that first described these dynamics only came out four years after his book. Indeed, if it had been written today, a significant portion of its pages would probably have been dedicated the tipping points that determine our safe and just operating space. Also, although energy shortages have declined in the past two decades, fossil fuels still supplied 84% of the world’s energy in 2020.

The build-up of toxic chemicals is evidenced by the latest assessment of planetary boundaries published in 2023, showcasing high-risk pollutants of phosphorous and nitrogen in soils and water. Air pollution, whilst not yet having crossed the planetary boundary, is showing marked signs of decline and two-thirds of the world’s cities show increases in air pollution.

The “photosynthetic ceiling” is an emerging area of research. There is an absolute maximum capacity to manufacture organic matter, and thus the amount of biocarbon that can be produced. Although the specifics are debated, it is clear that humans are utilizing an increasing amount of available biologically produced carbon (about one-third today). At the same time, the ceiling is contracting, as myriad factors from urban development to extreme weather events and ocean salinization reduce the amount of biocarbon the planet is able to maintain.

Unlike many ancient societies which failed because they were unable to anticipate drivers of collapse, this is not the case today. We have a burgeoning body of science and lived experience to the contrary. Our generation’s challenge is to solve the complex web of interconnected problems once they have arisen.

Against this backdrop, and with this knowledge, we are seeing signs of hope. For example, between 2019 and 2022, The Alliance of CEO Climate Leaders achieved a 10% reduction in aggregated absolute emissions, based on an analysis of its members’ emissions data. This reduction outpaces the emissions progress of major global economies and exceeds the Science-Based Targets initiative’s (SBTi) Paris-aligned pathway to net zero. During this time, alliance members recorded an 18% aggregate revenue growth, surpassing global GDP growth of 15%.

Initiatives like this demonstrate that progress is possible in critical areas of sustainable development, including climate action and economic growth, and emphasis Diamond’s cautionary tale of the need for collective action before it’s too late.

In the past 20 years we have experienced a global pandemic, rising levels of conflict and persistent food insecurity – increasingly driven by the consequences of the decline of Earth systems are they reach tipping points. Consequences include extreme weather, droughts and floods.

Humanity’s collective, coordinated and credible responses are a necessary condition to safeguard safety and justice. This requires leadership both from global decision makers alongside experts from academic institutions and land stewards like Indigenous peoples who support tailored and appropriate action in affected landscapes. It requires moving beyond a singular focus on emissions reduction, to biodiversity conservation and restoration whilst building systemic and inclusive resilience.

Informed optimism gives us the space to fully comprehend the gravity of our situation, whilst harnessing our potential to forge critical pathways ahead. In the words of James Stockdale: “You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end — which you can never afford to lose — with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.”