The top economics stories of 2024
Soft landings and sluggish growth in 2024 - but what will next year hold? Image: REUTERS/Marvellous Durowaiye REFILE - CORRECTING CITY FROM "ABUJA" TO "LAGOS".
- The global economy was front and centre in 2024, as leaders grappled with the lingering impacts of inflation, explored changes to monetary policy and how to ensure growth in the Intelligent Age.
- Here are some of our must-read stories of the year.
1. Growth: Quality and quantity
A sluggish global economy has been a topic of conversation throughout the year. In January at Davos 2024, there were calls for a 'new paradigm of prosperity' that balances productivity with equity and sustainability. This approach was at the heart of the World Economic Forum's Future of Growth Report 2024, which introduced a framework to assess the quality of economic growth across the globe.
And at the Annual Meeting of the New Champions in June, we explored growth against the backdrop of rapid technological change as we enter the Intelligent Age.
What is the World Economic Forum doing about the Fourth Industrial Revolution?
2. A year of elections: 'vibes' vs GDP
2024 was one of the biggest years for elections globally in recent memory, with billions heading to the polls in countries around the world.
The ousting of incumbent parties across the globe highlighted differences between headline economic statistics and the ways in which economies are actually experienced. GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation proved to be less indicative of outcomes than fears for what might come next.
The US presidential election in November had an immediate impact on the global economy. US shares hit record highs, the dollar rose against a number of currencies, while Bitcoin also hit an all-time high. The longer-term impact, of course, remains to be seen.
3. Chief Economists: Navigating complexity
Throughout the year we've taken the view of Chief Economists. They've given their thoughts on topics from inflation to growth and monetary policy. You can see all of this year's editions further down, and the chart below shows some of their thoughts from September's outlook.
Monetary policy was a significant topic within the community and beyond, as several major economies cut interest rates.
Economists were also wary of geopolitical volatility and technological disruptions posing challenges for businesses and policymakers.
4. Soft landing: Cautious optimism
A key talking point throughout 2024 was the so-called soft landing, with some optimism emerging throughout the year on prospects for the global economy and growth.
With rapid interest rate rises in recent times to dampen inflation, central banks ran the risk of recessions as growth was stifled. However, across most economies that was avoided - the soft landing. Our May Chief Economists Outlook talked of 'cautious optimism' - a view echoed through much of the rest of 2024.
5. Global debt: Rising
In the face of increased interest rates, there's been concern in 2024 about rising public debt levels.
The September Chief Economists Outlook warned that debt levels are a significant threat to a stable economic outlook. UNCTAD estimates that 3.3 billion people live in countries that spend more on interest payments than on either education or health.
6. Geopolitics of growth: Asia and BRICS
China has been a key driver of global growth for a number of years, but Asia's rising influence on the global economy and its critical role in growth is spreading. Consider, for example, the latest Chief Economists Outlook, which saw much more optimism for growth on the continent - with the notable exception of China - than in other regions.
Across this year, we've explored regional growth trends, factors driving economies across the continent and the impact this will have on the global economy.
The BRICS bloc reaffirmed its emergence as a major economic power with regards to commodities trading. BRICS economies also account for an estimated 37.3% of global gross domestic product based on purchasing power parity. China alone represents 19.05% while India accounts for 8.23%, according to the International Monetary Fund. Meanwhile, the United States and the European Union account for roughly 14.5% each.
You can read a selection of these pieces below.
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Timothy Young
January 9, 2025