From 'tipping points' to 'sleeper species': this year's known unknowns of the climate crisis

The phrase “carbon footprint” is understood across the world today, but this was not the case when it was first used around the start of the 21^st century. The nature and climate crisis has resulted in a raft of vocabulary to explain new phenomena that we all need to learn.

But more important than learning the words themselves is developing an understanding of the dynamics behind them, the impacts they could have and – crucially – the way to act now to limit the full scope of their potential future impacts. Here are five phrases that are rising in prominence, the stories behind them and ideas about how to tackle emerging threats.

There’s a clear reason you can’t grow oranges in the Arctic. The climatic conditions aren’t right.

While polar mandarins aren’t expected anytime soon, other species of plant and insect could soon start to show up outside their usual habitats if humanity keeps turning up the dial on the Earth’s thermostat.

Various plants and insects are in fact already living in new environments, but are being kept in check because the conditions they need to thrive are not quite right. Yet global heating is set to awaken 18 of these “sleeper species”, and this could cause environmental and economic problems, according to researchers at the University of Massachusetts in the US.

Sleeper species are defined by Canada’s Invasives Species Centre as “non-native species already present in an ecosystem that have potential to be invasive, but are limited by factors such as climate or other species”.

These species can arrive in new countries by numerous routes, including via ships, through the trading of plants and exotic pets, or simply by the movement of humans who may inadvertently be carrying seeds on their clothing.

An example includes the Sirex woodwasp, which was introduced to Canada in 2005 but has so far been limited to parts of Ontario and Quebec. If rising temperatures create the conditions it needs to flourish, this could have “negative impacts on Canada’s important pine plantations”, the Invasive Species Centre says.

Seeking out ways to understand the degree to which your local environment is prone to risk is a first step. Many free resources are available online, including the Global Invasive Species Database, which lists 100 potential alien species that are “recognized globally as a major threat to biodiversity, agriculture and other human interests”. After developing an understanding of the risks, from choking rivers to local pollinator die-off, communities can better proactively monitor outbreaks and respond to avoid sleeper species getting the upper hand.

Insects may be small, but they are of huge importance to many global ecosystems, from fruit and vegetable production to helping control the spread of harmful pests. The functioning of these ecosystems is therefore at risk from the fact that rising temperature could make 65% of the world’s insect populations extinct within the next century.

Air pollution poses a further threat to global insect numbers, with impacts being observed even in remote areas. In fact, PNAS, a peer-reviewed journal of the US National Academy of Sciences, says insects are harmed by so many effects of the climate crisis and human activity that they are facing “death by a thousand cuts”.

This could in turn have multiple effects.

“Eighty-seven of the world’s major crops are thought to be fully or partially dependent on insect pollinators, of which most tend to be grown in the tropics,” say two experts from University College London (UCL). Cocoa is one example, as it relies on midges for pollination.

Other “ecosystem services” that insects provide include providing bioactive compounds and other resources for medicines, and helping preserve soil quality and regulate freshwater systems.

Daisy Ginsberg’s Pollinator Pathmaker is an illustration of concepts that support insect populations to thrive. These living sculptures prioritize the needs, perspectives and diversity of endangered pollinators.

Initiatives such as the Alliance for Clean Air help to support a healthier environment not just for humans, but for the insects upon which our food security depends.

If temperatures keep rising, permafrost in regions such as Siberia and the Arctic will be at risk of melting.

Permafrost comes from the notion of ‘permanently frozen’ ground. In practice, permafrost needs to remain completely frozen for an uninterrupted period of at least two years. It is our largest terrestrial carbon store, holding twice the amount of carbon than is in the atmosphere today, but is currently at risk of tipping into a state of perpetual thaw. Not only would this release emissions into the atmosphere that could rival annual US emissions in future, but it could release ancient viruses preserved within its layers.

The Arctic Council has already set up a working group to monitor potential releases of “contaminants” as a result of climate change. This group, the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme, is watching 10 “key” areas for potential releases.

Birgitta Evengård of Sweden’s Umea University told CNN: “If there is a virus hidden in the permafrost that we have not been in contact with for thousands of years, it might be that our immune defence is not sufficient. It is correct to have respect for the situation and be proactive and not just reactive. And the way to fight fear is to have knowledge.”

The rise of wildfires in recent years has been well documented, with record-breaking areas of tree cover lost as a result.

Extreme wildfires in Canada accounted for more than a quarter of the global tree-cover loss in 2023, with climate change cited as a leading cause by the World Resources Institute.

Fires in boreal forests like those in northern Canada may appear to have been extinguished as snow falls in winter, however they are in fact continuing to smoulder underground in the permafrost, and reignite as spring returns.

An average of five or six of these inextinguishable fires usually burn each winter in British Columbia, but a record-setting 106 were noted in January 2024. Unfortunately, 91 were still burning in the spring, according to official data from the province.

Additional research by University College Cork in Ireland suggests that “rapid atmospheric warming can cause peat soils to suddenly heat up to smouldering temperatures underground, all without any spark or other ignition” – an effect that it describes as “climate change-driven spontaneous combustion”.

Tipping points have been talked about a lot in recent years, with 1.5°C a physical threshold that most people will have heard of. The Global Tipping Points Report launched at COP28 in December 2023 identified over 25 Earth system tipping points. According to the IPCC, a tipping point is “a critical threshold beyond which a system reorganises, often abruptly and/or irreversibly”.

For instance, land ice on the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets – melting rapidly and close to crossing tipping points – represents 10 metres of sea-level rise in future. At current levels of global heating, 99% of coral reefs experience heatwaves that are too frequent for them to recover.

These abrupt shifts could include the melting of major ice sheets leading to multiple metres of rapid sea-level rise. This could radically change major ocean circulation patterns, which may in turn alter monsoon seasons and create “tipping cascades that destabilize wider parts of the climate system”.

There are 16 biosphere tipping points identified in the report, with temperature rises potentially triggering major problems including forest dieback, the degradation of savanna and dryland, and the dying-off of coral reefs, mangroves and seagrass meadows, all of which could result in the collapse of marine food chains.

The report issues six key recommendations to try and turn back the tide. They include immediately phasing out fossil fuel and land use emissions, and strengthening adaptation and loss-and-damage governance. It also calls for a global summit on climate tipping points and for a deepening of knowledge about these tipping points, as well as a translation of this knowledge into action.

Positive tipping points are a corollary. The system of electric vehicles has positively tipped, allowing for self-perpetuating uptake of clean technologies thanks to conducive regulation, cost structures and consumer incentives. To learn more about positive tipping dynamics, explore the Positive Tipping Points transformation map from Strategic Intelligence.

The key to mobilizing an effective response to this crisis is informed optimism. Former US admiral James Stockdale, who spent seven years as a prisoner of war in Vietnam, is quoted as saying: “You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end – which you can never afford to lose – with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.”

When confronted with the nature and climate crisis, it is essential to understand fully the hard realities we are facing. Not doing so leads to misguided perceptions and poorly crafted, often linear solutions. However, if we let go of optimism, we risk falling into a trauma response of fight, flight, freeze and fold – which can propel conflict, disassociation and inaction. This is known as the Stockdale Paradox.

The Forum’s Centre for Nature and Climate convenes actors from many parts of our economic, political and social landscape to work together on developing optimism and solutions, in recognition that no one actor can solve this problem alone.

It has helped establish initiatives such as the First Movers Coalition – a group of almost 100 countries working to advance emerging technologies that could decarbonize heavy-emitting sectors. 1t.org (One Trillion Trees initiative) promotes corporate pledges on forest conservation and restoration. The Alliance of CEO Climate Leaders, the world’s largest CEO-led community dedicated to reaching net zero emissions by 2050, has successfully cut 10% of its aggregate emissions – equivalent to the annual emissions of France, while growing revenue.

These initiatives reflect the unique opportunity to work together, bringing our skills and gifts in a connected network that builds awareness, resilience and credible action to respond appropriately to the climate crisis.